2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF (CBOE: BITX)

Manhattan Crypto Capital BITX Investment Mandate & Quantitative R&D

Leveraged Bitcoin Convexity Framework

Quantitative Research Report | Manhattan Crypto Capital

BITX Quantitative Analysis, Bitcoin ETF Price Targets & Risk Framework by Manhattan Crypto Capital

Issue Date: May 18, 2026

Prepared By: Manhattan Crypto Capital Quantitative R&D Division

Time Horizon: 3–12 Months

Portfolio Classification: Tactical Leveraged Bitcoin Exposure

Volatility Classification: Extreme

Executive Summary

BITX currently represents a high-volatility leveraged Bitcoin reaccumulation structure following a prolonged deleveraging cycle tied to:

• Bitcoin volatility resets

• leveraged ETF decay

• futures-based positioning

• macro liquidity rotation

The current structure reflects:

• improving support stabilization

• downside momentum exhaustion

• early-stage accumulation behavior

• volatility compression near historical support

Within the Manhattan Crypto Capital framework, BITX is categorized strictly as:

• a tactical leveraged exposure vehicle

• not a long-duration core holding

The statistical opportunity exists because:

• Bitcoin macro structure remains constructive

• leveraged ETF downside momentum has slowed materially

• volatility compression often precedes reflexive expansion phases

However, BITX carries:

• elevated decay risk

• extreme volatility

• amplified downside during BTC corrections

This vehicle requires:

• active management

• disciplined scaling

• strict risk controls

MCC Quantitative Scoring Framework

Quantitative Factor	Score	Weight	Weighted Score
Trend Structure Quality	72	20%	14.4
Momentum Persistence	68	15%	10.2
Volatility Compression Setup	84	15%	12.6
Support Integrity	79	10%	7.9
Risk / Reward Asymmetry	91	15%	13.7
Volume & Participation	74	10%	7.4
Macro / Sector Strength	88	10%	8.8
Institutional Conviction	66	5%	3.3

MCC Quantitative Score

78.3 / 100

MCC Classification

Tactical High-Conviction Opportunity

MCC Statistical Structure Analysis

Metric	Score
Breakout Probability	74/100
Convexity Potential	96/100
Downside Fragility	90/100
Momentum Continuation Probability	71/100
Volatility Expansion Potential	95/100
Institutional Support Strength	65/100

MCC Market Regime Classification

Current Market Regime

Bitcoin Leveraged Reaccumulation

The structure currently reflects:

• prolonged volatility compression

• support stabilization

• seller exhaustion

• improving accumulation behavior

BITX appears to be forming:

• a leveraged recovery base

  
  

  after:

• a significant deleveraging event

Historically, leveraged Bitcoin vehicles tend to experience:

• violent reflexive expansion

  
  

  when:

• BTC reclaims macro momentum

Technical Structure Overview

Current Structure

The chart currently reflects:

• prolonged downside exhaustion

• support stabilization above accumulation zones

• compression following trend destruction

• improving short-term structure

The key structural observation is:

• downside momentum is slowing materially

This often precedes:

• directional volatility expansion

• momentum recovery

• speculative capital rotation

Key Price Levels

Level	Price	Classification
Manhattan Crypto Capital Price Target	$98	Primary expansion target
Macro Resistance	$64	Major supply wall
Mid Resistance	$52	Trend pivot
Tactical Buy Zone (BZ1)	$12.95	Primary accumulation
Institutional Buy Zone (BZ2)	$9.95	Secondary accumulation
Deep Value Buy Zone (BZ3)	$7.21	Convexity support
Current Price	~$18.29	Above accumulation bands

Probability-Weighted Scenario Analysis

Scenario	Probability	Expected Outcome
Bear Case	25%	Retest accumulation zones
Base Case	50%	Recovery toward $52–64
Bull Case	25%	Expansion toward $98

Expected Value & Convexity Analysis

Category	Assessment
Expected Value Profile	Attractive
Upside Asymmetry	Exceptional
Volatility Risk	Extreme
Structural Integrity	Moderate
Liquidity Stability	Moderate
Statistical Opportunity	Favorable

Manhattan Crypto Capital Investment Thesis

1. Leveraged Bitcoin Beta Exposure

BITX provides:

• amplified Bitcoin upside exposure

• leveraged BTC momentum participation

• speculative convexity potential

Historically:

• Bitcoin expansion cycles create reflexive upside in leveraged ETFs

This can produce:

• outsized returns

  
  

  but also:

• violent drawdowns

2. Volatility Compression Setup

The current structure reflects:

• declining downside velocity

• improving stabilization

• compressed volatility conditions

Historically, these environments frequently precede:

• expansion phases

• short squeezes

• momentum acceleration

3. Bitcoin Macro Alignment

The probability of BITX expansion remains highly dependent on:

• Bitcoin macro trend continuation

• liquidity expansion

• institutional crypto demand

• ETF flow persistence

BITX should never be analyzed independently from Bitcoin itself.

MCC Structured Accumulation Plan

Tactical Buy Zone — BZ1

$12.95 Area

Allocation: 40%

Purpose:

• initial leverage exposure

• support participation

• volatility compression entry

Institutional Buy Zone — BZ2

$9.95 Area

Allocation: 35%

Purpose:

• stronger asymmetry

• institutional accumulation

• improved expected value

Deep Value Buy Zone — BZ3

$7.21 Area

Allocation: 25%

Purpose:

• panic volatility capture

• maximum convexity

• long-duration recovery positioning

Profit Rotation Strategy

Level	Action
$52	Trim 15–20%
$64	Rotate additional 25–35%
$98	Major distribution target

MCC portfolio discipline prioritizes:

• scaling out aggressively into strength

• protecting realized gains

• avoiding leverage overexposure

• reducing decay risk over time

MCC Risk Management Framework

Full De-Risk Conditions

Exposure should be materially reduced if:

• Bitcoin loses macro structure

• BITX loses BZ3 support

• liquidity conditions deteriorate materially

• crypto risk appetite collapses

BITX should remain:

• a tactical leveraged vehicle

  
  

  not:

• a permanent portfolio core position

Portfolio Role Inside Manhattan Crypto Capital

BITX serves as:

• tactical leveraged BTC exposure

• convexity enhancement allocation

• momentum acceleration instrument

• high-beta crypto participation

Within the MCC framework, BITX complements:

• spot BTC exposure

• crypto infrastructure holdings

• AI/high-beta momentum allocations

• tactical volatility trades

MCC Final Committee Ratings

Metric	Score
Quantitative Structure	78/100
Momentum Persistence	71/100
Convexity Potential	96/100
Risk-Adjusted Opportunity	81/100
Institutional Quality	66/100
Volatility Risk	95/100
Final MCC Rating	79/100

Final MCC Recommendation

Status

ACCUMULATE TACTICALLY

Strategy

Layered DCA with Active Risk Controls

Primary Objective

Capture leveraged upside from Bitcoin continuation cycles.

Secondary Objective

Enhance portfolio convexity during favorable crypto liquidity regimes.

BITX currently represents a statistically attractive leveraged Bitcoin recovery structure with elevated convexity and favorable upside asymmetry, though risk management discipline remains critical due to volatility and ETF decay characteristics.

CEO Commentary

BITX Positioned as Tactical Leveraged Bitcoin Convexity Opportunity Under Manhattan Crypto Capital Risk Framework

“At Manhattan Crypto Capital, leveraged exposure is never approached emotionally or recklessly. Vehicles such as BITX are utilized tactically within a disciplined institutional risk-management framework designed to capture asymmetric upside during favorable Bitcoin liquidity cycles while actively managing volatility and leverage risk.

The current structure suggests improving stabilization after a prolonged deleveraging phase. From a probability-weighted perspective, the setup reflects favorable convexity if Bitcoin maintains macro trend continuation and institutional crypto demand remains constructive. However, leveraged ETFs inherently carry elevated fragility and decay characteristics, which is why disciplined sizing, staged accumulation, and active rotation remain mandatory within our framework.

Our objective is not maximizing leverage. Our objective is maximizing asymmetric expected value while preserving long-term survivability through disciplined capital management. In our view, BITX currently represents an attractive tactical opportunity for experienced investors operating within a properly diversified institutional portfolio structure.”

Zaid Khan

CEO, Manhattan Crypto Capital

Managing Partner, Manhattan Global Partners

Manhattan Crypto Capital Disclaimer

This material is provided for informational, educational, and research purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any security, digital asset, derivative, fund interest, or investment product. Any offer or solicitation may be made only through official offering documents, including applicable Confidential Private Placement Memorandums, subscription agreements, and related legal documentation, and only to qualified and eligible investors in jurisdictions where permitted by law.

Manhattan Crypto Capital and Manhattan Global Partners operate under applicable exemptions including, where relevant, SEC Regulation D Rule 506(c) and Regulation S. Investments discussed may involve substantial risk, including loss of principal, illiquidity, volatility, leverage risk, regulatory risk, and market uncertainty. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Forward-looking statements are inherently uncertain and subject to change without notice.

The content presented reflects quantitative research, market commentary, technical analysis, macroeconomic interpretation, and portfolio construction methodologies that may change based on market conditions. Nothing herein should be construed as legal, tax, accounting, or personalized investment advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult qualified professional advisors before making investment decisions.

Manhattan Crypto Capital, Manhattan Global Partners, and their affiliates may hold positions in the assets, securities, or investment vehicles discussed and may change such positions without notice. No representation or warranty is made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein.

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