AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS)

Manhattan Crypto Capital ASTS Investment Mandate & Quantitative R&D

AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS)

Space Infrastructure Convexity Framework

Quantitative Research Report | Manhattan Crypto Capital

Issue Date: May 18, 2026

Prepared By: Manhattan Crypto Capital Quantitative R&D Division

Time Horizon: 6–24 Months

Portfolio Classification: Tactical Convexity Allocation

Volatility Classification: Extremely High

Executive Summary

AST SpaceMobile continues to rank as one of the highest-convexity speculative infrastructure opportunities under the Manhattan Crypto Capital quantitative framework.

The current structure reflects:

• constructive higher-low formation

• volatility compression

• improving trend stability

• institutional support defense

• favorable asymmetric risk/reward

The chart remains statistically constructive while:

• price holds above the $75 and $62 structural support zones

• the ascending trend structure remains intact

• downside momentum continues decelerating

Under the MCC framework, ASTS is categorized as:

• an emerging communications infrastructure asset

• a speculative innovation allocation

• a tactical asymmetric growth vehicle

This is not a defensive portfolio position.

This is a:

• volatility-managed convexity trade

• suitable only within disciplined portfolio sizing and institutional risk controls.

MCC Quantitative Scoring Framework

Quantitative Factor	Score	Weight	Weighted Score
Trend Structure Quality	84	20%	16.8
Momentum Persistence	76	15%	11.4
Volatility Compression Setup	81	15%	12.1
Support Integrity	86	10%	8.6
Risk / Reward Asymmetry	94	15%	14.1
Volume & Participation	74	10%	7.4
Macro / Sector Strength	79	10%	7.9
Institutional Conviction	68	5%	3.4

Final MCC Quantitative Score

81.7 / 100

MCC Classification

Strong Accumulation Candidate

MCC Statistical Structure Analysis

Metric	Score
Breakout Probability	78/100
Convexity Potential	95/100
Downside Fragility	72/100
Momentum Continuation Probability	76/100
Volatility Expansion Potential	89/100
Institutional Support Strength	70/100

MCC Market Regime Classification

Current Market Regime

Speculative Infrastructure Reaccumulation

The current structure suggests:

• consolidation following speculative expansion

• decreasing downside pressure

• support stabilization

• trend continuation probability improvement

The ascending trendline remains one of the most important structural indicators on the chart.

As long as:

• higher lows continue forming

• price remains above the lower accumulation bands

• volatility continues compressing the statistical probability of continuation remains constructive.

Technical Structure Overview

Current Structure

The chart currently reflects:

• macro ascending channel support

• successful support retests

• improving stabilization behavior

• momentum reset following expansion

ASTS recently experienced:

• speculative blowoff behavior

• profit-taking rotation

• volatility normalization

The current structure increasingly resembles:

• institutional reaccumulation rather than:

• terminal distribution

Key Price Levels

Level	Price	Classification
Manhattan Crypto Capital Price Target	$197	Expansion target
Macro Resistance	$130	Major supply zone
Mid Resistance	$105	Trend pivot
Tactical Buy Zone (BZ1)	$88	Primary accumulation
Institutional Buy Zone (BZ2)	$75	Secondary accumulation
Deep Value Buy Zone (BZ3)	$62	Convexity support
Capitulation Support	$21	Extreme downside support
Current Price	~$84	Inside BZ1

Probability-Weighted Scenario Analysis

Scenario	Probability	Expected Path
Bear Case	20%	Retest lower support
Base Case	50%	Recovery toward $105–130
Bull Case	30%	Expansion toward $197

Expected Value & Convexity Analysis

Category	Assessment
Expected Value Profile	Attractive
Upside Asymmetry	Exceptional
Volatility Risk	Extremely High
Structural Integrity	Strong
Liquidity Stability	Moderate
Statistical Opportunity	Favorable

Manhattan Crypto Capital Investment Thesis

1. Direct-to-Device Communications Infrastructure

ASTS is building exposure to:

• satellite broadband infrastructure

• direct cellular connectivity

• telecom infrastructure evolution

• next-generation communications systems

This creates exposure to:

• emerging infrastructure transformation

• long-duration connectivity demand

• global communications expansion

2. High Convexity Statistical Profile

The statistical attractiveness exists because:

• upside potential remains extreme

• downside zones are increasingly defined

• volatility has compressed meaningfully

• momentum deterioration is slowing

This improves:

• expected value characteristics

• asymmetric payoff potential

3. Institutional Reaccumulation Behavior

The current structure increasingly suggests:

• speculative excess reset

• institutional positioning

• support stabilization

• momentum rebuilding

Historically, similar structures frequently precede:

• secondary expansion phases

• momentum continuation

• volatility expansion cycles

MCC Structured Accumulation Plan

Tactical Buy Zone — BZ1

$88 Area

Allocation: 40%

Purpose:

• initial accumulation

• support participation

• momentum stabilization entry

Institutional Buy Zone — BZ2

$75 Area

Allocation: 35%

Purpose:

• stronger asymmetry

• institutional support accumulation

• volatility optimization

Deep Value Buy Zone — BZ3

$62 Area

Allocation: 25%

Purpose:

• panic volatility capture

• convexity maximization

• strategic positioning

Profit Rotation Strategy

Level	Action
$105	Trim 15–20%
$130	Rotate additional 25–35%
$197	Major distribution target

MCC portfolio discipline prioritizes:

• scaling into weakness

• rotating into strength

• protecting realized gains

• preserving long-term capital

MCC Risk Management Framework

Full De-Risk Conditions

Exposure should be materially reduced if:

• structure loses $62 support

• trendline support fails

• speculative growth breadth deteriorates materially

• macro liquidity weakens aggressively

ASTS should remain:

• a tactical convexity allocation not:

• a defensive core compounder

Portfolio Role Inside Manhattan Crypto Capital

ASTS serves as:

• speculative infrastructure exposure

• asymmetric convexity positioning

• next-generation communications participation

• tactical growth acceleration exposure

Within the MCC framework, ASTS complements:

• AI infrastructure holdings

• quantum exposure

• crypto infrastructure assets

• innovation-focused growth allocations

MCC Final Committee Ratings

Metric	Score
Quantitative Structure	82/100
Momentum Persistence	76/100
Convexity Potential	95/100
Risk-Adjusted Opportunity	84/100
Institutional Quality	68/100
Volatility Risk	92/100
Final MCC Rating	83/100

Final MCC Recommendation

Status

ACCUMULATE TACTICALLY

Strategy

Layered DCA with Strict Risk Controls

Primary Objective

Capture asymmetric upside from emerging communications infrastructure expansion.

Secondary Objective

Maintain exposure to high-convexity speculative infrastructure opportunities under disciplined institutional risk management.

ASTS currently represents one of the strongest statistical convexity opportunities within the Manhattan Crypto Capital innovation framework, supported by constructive structure, improving support integrity, and favorable asymmetric upside potential.

CEO Commentary

AST SpaceMobile Positioned as High-Convexity Infrastructure Opportunity Under Manhattan Crypto Capital Quantitative Framework

“At Manhattan Crypto Capital, we focus on opportunities where asymmetric upside materially outweighs downside risk under disciplined institutional portfolio construction. AST SpaceMobile currently represents one of the more compelling high-convexity infrastructure opportunities within the speculative growth universe due to its improving technical structure, favorable support integrity, and long-term communications infrastructure potential.

The current setup reflects volatility compression, trend stabilization, and improving accumulation behavior after a major speculative expansion cycle. While the volatility profile remains extremely elevated, our framework suggests the probability-weighted expected value remains constructive provided the broader innovation and liquidity cycle remains supportive.

Under the Manhattan Crypto Capital risk management framework, positions such as ASTS are accumulated tactically through staged entries, strict sizing discipline, and active risk management. Our objective is not predicting outcomes with certainty. Our objective is identifying asymmetric opportunities where long-term convexity meaningfully exceeds downside fragility while preserving institutional capital discipline throughout the cycle.”

Zaid Khan

CEO, Manhattan Crypto Capital

Managing Partner, Manhattan Global Partners

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Quantitative Analysis, Price Targets & Risk Framework by Manhattan Crypto Capital

Manhattan Crypto Capital Disclaimer

This material is provided for informational, educational, and research purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any security, digital asset, derivative, fund interest, or investment product. Any offer or solicitation may be made only through official offering documents, including applicable Confidential Private Placement Memorandums, subscription agreements, and related legal documentation, and only to qualified and eligible investors in jurisdictions where permitted by law.

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The content presented reflects quantitative research, market commentary, technical analysis, macroeconomic interpretation, and portfolio construction methodologies that may change based on market conditions. Nothing herein should be construed as legal, tax, accounting, or personalized investment advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult qualified professional advisors before making investment decisions.

Manhattan Crypto Capital, Manhattan Global Partners, and their affiliates may hold positions in the assets, securities, or investment vehicles discussed and may change such positions without notice. No representation or warranty is made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein.

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