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MCC Quant Research #BITX

  • 22 hours ago
  • 3 min read
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Issue: December 19, 2025

Asset: 2x Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITX) — CBOE

Timeframe: Weekly

Vehicle Role: Levered BTC Beta / Tactical Convexity Sleeve

Fund Mandate: Long-only, cycle-based accumulation



1. Market Regime & Quant Score


Weighted Quant Components (Weekly):

  • MAs alignment: 55%

  • Price below fast MA and compressed under resistance; long-term structure still upward-sloping.

  • DMI trend strength: 50%

  • Trendless following rejection; no dominant directional impulse.

  • Ichimoku cloud positioning: 74%

  • Price below cloud; cloud overhead acting as resistance—bearish in the near term.

  • Momentum (MACD / Stochastic): 78%

  • MACD strong bearish; stochastic oversold—indicative of momentum reset, not capitulation.

  • Structure & trend integrity: 65%

  • Macro higher-low structure intact; short-term breakdown into support test.

  • Volume/distribution: 66%

  • Heavy distribution in sell zones; pullback volume declining (constructive).

  • RSI offset: -8%

  • RSI bearish-neutral after failed breakout.


Market Regime: Bearish Correction within Levered Bull Structure.

Quant Regime Score: 72 / 100


Interpretation: BITX has completed a classic levered rejection at multi-layer resistance. The correction phase is resetting momentum inside a broader bullish Bitcoin cycle, shifting focus from upside chasing to disciplined downside accumulation.



2. MCC Portfolio Context


BITX is treated as pure convexity, never a core holding.

  • Role: Tactical leverage for BTC bull-cycle acceleration.

  • Volatility & drawdown: Extreme; 65–80% drawdowns possible during corrections due to leverage and futures decay.

  • Exposure management:

    • Exposure is added only at deep structural support.

    • Exposure was reduced aggressively into resistance and failed breakouts.

  • Portfolio complement: Used sparingly alongside BTC spot / IBIT to amplify upside while core holdings anchor risk.



3. BUY SCENARIO — Long-Only Accumulation


Buy Zone 1 (Primary): $25.83 – $28.20

  • Technical justification:

    • Rising long-term trendline confluence

    • Prior demand/range support

    • Mean reversion after sell-zone rejection

  • MCC deployment style: Staged, cautious


Buy Zone 2 (Secondary): $16.45 – $18.62

  • Technical justification:

    • 45%–52% retracement of prior impulse

    • High-volume historical accumulation shelf

  • MCC deployment style: Defensive


Buy Zone 3 (Extreme / Tail Risk): $5.94 – $6.93

  • Technical justification:

    • Prior cycle base

    • Maximum convex asymmetry

  • MCC deployment style: Opportunistic only


Example Capital Allocation ($1,000):

Zone

Allocation

Entry Range

Rationale

Primary

$500

$25.83–$28.20

Tactical BTC leverage

Secondary

$300

$16.45–$18.62

Drawdown reset

Extreme

$200

$5.94–$6.93

Tail-risk convexity



4. SELL / RISK-OFF SCENARIO (NO SHORTS)


Sell Zone Cluster: $37.94 – $55.31

  • Purpose: Trim / de-risk aggressively

  • Redeploy: BTC spot ETF, cash, or lower-vol crypto sleeve


Upper MCC Reference Target: $80.58 – $104.70

  • Used only during late-cycle BTC expansions, not base-case planning.


Statement: Sells are risk-management actions, not bearish bets.



5. Cycle-Based ROI Bands (MANDATORY)

Calculated from primary buy zone midpoint (~$27.00)

Cycle Regime

Target Range

Estimated ROI

Bear / Sideways

$25.83 – $38.00

0% – 40%

Base Case

$45.44 – $55.31

68% – 105%

Bull Expansion

$80.58 – $104.70

200% – 288%



6. Risk Profile

  • Volatility: Extreme

  • Drawdown Risk: ~75%

  • Trend Strength: Moderate (corrective)

  • Success Probability: ~52–60%

  • Total Risk Score: 78 / 100


Hard Invalidation Rules:

  • Weekly close below $25.83

  • Sustained breakdown of the long-term rising trendline with volume expansion



7. MCC Quant Rules Applied

  • Leverage only at structural support

  • Never chase breakouts in levered ETFs

  • Buy panic and resets, not euphoria

  • Trim aggressively into resistance

  • Keep levered exposure capped

  • Rotate gains into spot BTC or cash



8. Strategic Interpretation (MCC View)

  • Now: Flat or minimal exposure; monitoring trendline reaction.

  • If price moves higher: Trim rapidly into resistance; no holding through compression.

  • If price moves lower: Scale in defensively at buy zones if structure holds; stand down on invalidation.


No forecasts. If–then execution only.



9. One-Liner

MCC Quant view on #BITX: levered BTC proxy in a corrective reset phase, favoring disciplined long-only accumulation strictly at structural support and aggressive trims into resistance, supported by a Total Quant Score of 78/100 under MCC’s strategy and R&D investment framework.







⚠️ Legal Disclaimer

This content is quantitative research and technical analysis for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or solicitation to trade. Investing in digital assets and securities involves risk, including potential loss of capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.

 
 
 
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