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MCC Quant Research #AGNC

  • 17 hours ago
  • 3 min read
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Issue: December 19, 2025

Asset: AGNC Investment Corp. (NASDAQ: AGNC)

Timeframe: Monthly

Vehicle Role: Income Sleeve / Defensive Yield

Fund Mandate: Long-only, cycle-based accumulation



1. Market Regime & Quant Score


Weighted Quant Components (Monthly):

  • MAs alignment: 82%Price firmly above fast and slow monthly MAs; bullish slope intact.

  • DMI trend strength: 55%Trend present but not forceful; momentum-driven rather than impulse-led.

  • Ichimoku cloud positioning: 80%Price well above cloud; cloud support rising.

  • Momentum (MACD / Stochastic): 72%MACD strong bullish; stochastic overbought, signaling late-stage advance risk.

  • Structure & trend integrity: 78%Clear higher lows and higher highs since 2023 base.

  • Volume / distribution: 60%No major distribution spike; volume supportive but not expanding.

  • RSI offset: -5%RSI bullish but extended, warranting tactical caution.


Market Regime: Bullish (Late-Stage / Extended)Quant Regime Score: 69 / 100

Interpretation:AGNC is in a mature bullish regime following a multi-year basing phase. Trend remains intact, but momentum is extended, increasing short-term pullback risk without invalidating the broader uptrend.



2. MCC Portfolio Context


AGNC functions as a defensive income and yield stabilizer within the MCC portfolio.

  • Role: Cash-flow–oriented sleeve providing monthly income and volatility dampening.

  • Volatility & drawdown: Moderate volatility; historical drawdowns ~40–50% during rate shocks.

  • Exposure management:

    • Increase exposure during pullbacks into structural support.

    • Reduce or pause buying near upside extensions and yield compression zones.

  • Portfolio complement: Offsets crypto and equity beta with income-driven total return; suitable for capital preservation phases.



3. BUY SCENARIO — Long-Only Accumulation


Buy Zone 1 (Primary): $6.50 – $7.50

  • Technical justification:

    • Rising trendline support

    • Prior accumulation shelf

    • 50%–61.8% Fibonacci retracement confluence

  • MCC deployment style: Staged accumulation


Buy Zone 2 (Secondary): $5.00 – $6.00

  • Technical justification:

    • Deep retracement into historical demand

    • Prior cycle base area

  • MCC deployment style: Defensive


Example Capital Allocation ($1,000):

Zone

Allocation

Entry Range

Rationale

Primary

$700

$6.50–$7.50

Core income accumulation

Secondary

$300

$5.00–$6.00

Rate-shock protection



4. SELL / RISK-OFF SCENARIO (NO SHORTS)


Sell / Trim Zone: $10.00 – $11.83

  • Purpose: Trim exposure / pause buying due to extension

  • Redeploy: Cash, short-duration income ETFs, or core defensive sleeve


Upper Reference Level: $14.98

  • Used for late-cycle distribution, not full exit.

Statement:Sells are risk-management actions, not bearish bets.



5. Cycle-Based ROI Bands (MANDATORY)

Calculated from primary buy zone midpoint (~$7.00)

Cycle Regime

Target Range

Estimated ROI

Bear / Sideways

$6.50 – $8.50

0% – 20%

Base Case

$10.00 – $11.83

43% – 69%

Bull Expansion

$14.98

~114%

(Dividend yield not included in ROI estimates.)



6. Risk Profile

  • Volatility: Medium

  • Drawdown Risk: ~45%

  • Trend Strength: Strong (extended)

  • Success Probability: ~65–72%

  • Total Risk Score: 58 / 100


Hard Invalidation Rules:

  • Monthly close below $6.00

  • Breakdown of rising multi-year trendline with volume expansion



7. MCC Quant Rules Applied

  • Trade only with higher-timeframe trend

  • Buy pullbacks, not extensions

  • Accumulate at structural support

  • Trim exposure into strength

  • Preserve capital during late-cycle extensions

  • Use income assets to stabilize portfolio volatility



8. Strategic Interpretation (MCC View)

  • Now: Hold and collect income; avoid chasing at current levels.

  • If price moves higher: Trim into $10–$12 zone and rotate defensively.

  • If price moves lower: Accumulate methodically at defined buy zones if structure holds.


No forecasts. If–then execution only.



9. One-Liner

MCC Quant view on #AGNC: late-stage bullish income trend with disciplined long-only accumulation on pullbacks and risk-managed trims into extension, supported by a Total Quant Score of 58/100 under MCC’s strategy and R&D investment framework.




⚠️ Legal Disclaimer

This content is quantitative research and technical analysis for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or solicitation to trade. Investing in digital assets and securities involves risk, including potential loss of capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.

 
 
 

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