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MCC Quant Research #BITW

  • 21 hours ago
  • 3 min read
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Issue: December 19, 2025

Asset: Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF (BITW) NYSE Arca

Timeframe: Weekly

Vehicle Role: Core Crypto Basket / Diversified Beta

Fund Mandate: Long-only, cycle-based accumulation



1. Market Regime & Quant Score


Weighted Quant Components (Weekly):

  • MAs alignment: 63%

  • Fast MA bullish bias, but price is below the upper MA band after rejection.

  • DMI trend strength: 72%

  • Strong bearish impulse following sell-zone rejection.

  • Ichimoku cloud positioning: 61%

  • Bullish cloud structure intact; price slipping below conversion/base lines.

  • Momentum (MACD / Stochastic): 67%

  • MACD is strongly bearish; stochastic is oversold, consistent with a corrective phase.

  • Structure & trend integrity: 64%

  • Macro higher-lows intact; near-term lower high confirms pullback.

  • Volume/distribution: 60%

  • Distribution at resistance; declining volume on pullback (constructive).

  • RSI offset: -6%

  • RSI bearish-neutral, reflecting momentum reset.


Market Regime: Neutral → Bearish Correction (within Bull Structure)

Quant Regime Score: 66 / 100


Interpretation: BITW is digesting gains after a failed push through resistance. The broader bull structure remains intact, but near-term conditions favor disciplined re-accumulation at defined demand rather than chasing.



2. MCC Portfolio Context


BITW provides diversified core crypto exposure across significant assets.

  • Role: Broad beta capture, reducing single-asset concentration risk.

  • Volatility & drawdown: High volatility; diversified drawdowns historically ~55–65%.

  • Exposure management:

    • Increase exposure on pullbacks into composite support.

    • Reduce exposure to euphoria and resistance zones.

  • Portfolio complement: Sits between BTC core holdings and tactical sleeves, smoothing cycle participation.



3. BUY SCENARIO Long-Only Accumulation


Buy Zone 1 (Primary): $39.51 – $42.93

  • Technical justification:

    • Prior support shelf / range midpoint

    • Confluence with corrective retracement

  • MCC deployment style: Staged


Buy Zone 2 (Secondary): $27.82 – $39.51

  • Technical justification:

    • Deeper retracement into high-volume demand

    • Structural support from prior base

  • MCC deployment style: Defensive


Buy Zone 3 (Extreme / Tail Risk): $9.40 – $14.60

  • Technical justification:

    • Historical cycle base / maximum asymmetry

  • MCC deployment style: Opportunistic only


Example Capital Allocation ($1,000):

Zone

Allocation

Entry Range

Rationale

Primary

$500

$39.51–$42.93

Core diversified accumulation

Secondary

$300

$27.82–$39.51

Drawdown mitigation

Extreme

$200

$9.40–$14.60

Tail-risk asymmetry



4. SELL / RISK-OFF SCENARIO (NO SHORTS)


Sell Zone: $72.22 – $86.70

  • Purpose: Trim exposure / pause buying

  • Redeploy: Cash, BTC spot ETF, or lower-volatility sleeve


Upper MCC Price Targets:

  • $109.14 — First rotation target

  • $144.31 — Secondary rotation

  • $157.56 — Late-cycle distribution reference


Statement: Sells are risk-management actions, not bearish bets.



5. Cycle-Based ROI Bands (MANDATORY)


Calculated from primary buy zone midpoint (~$41.22)

Cycle Regime

Target Range

Estimated ROI

Bear / Sideways

$39.51 – $59.48

0% – 44%

Base Case

$72.22 – $86.70

75% – 110%

Bull Expansion

$109 – $157

165% – 280%



6. Risk Profile

  • Volatility: High

  • Drawdown Risk: ~60%

  • Trend Strength: Moderate (corrective)

  • Success Probability: ~60–68%

  • Total Risk Score: 66 / 100


Hard Invalidation Rules:

  • Weekly close below $27.82

  • Sustained loss of composite support with expanding volume



7. MCC Quant Rules Applied

  • Trade only with higher-timeframe structure

  • Buy weakness, never chase

  • Accumulate at liquidity, not resistance

  • Trim exposure into strength

  • Preserve dry powder during corrections

  • Use diversified baskets to reduce tail risk



8. Strategic Interpretation (MCC View)

  • Now: Stand down from highs; prepare staged buys at primary support.

  • If price moves higher: Trim again into resistance and rotate defensively.

  • If price moves lower: Add at secondary/extreme zones if structure holds; stand down if invalidated.


No forecasts. If–then execution only.



9. One-Liner


MCC Quant view on #BITW: corrective phase within a broader bullish crypto structure, favoring disciplined long-only accumulation at composite support and risk-managed trims into resistance, supported by a Total Quant Score of 66/100 under MCC’s strategy and R&D investment framework.








⚠️ Legal Disclaimer

This content is quantitative research and technical analysis for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or solicitation to trade. Investing in digital assets and securities involves risk, including potential loss of capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.

 
 
 

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