MCC Quant Research Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL)
- Jan 11
- 3 min read
Asset: Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL)
Asset Type: Equity Financial Infrastructure / Digital Payments (Stablecoin Issuer)
Timeframe: Daily (tactical), multi-month context
Vehicle Role: Crypto-adjacent Equities Engine (infrastructure proxy, not pure crypto beta)
Fund Mandate: Long-only, rotation-based accumulation at value; no breakout chasing
Issue: January 10, 2026
1. Market Regime & Quant Score
Market Regime: Downtrend → Base Building (Early Stabilization)
Strong prior impulse selloff from ~150 → ~65
Price now holding above rising trendline from the lows
Compression forming between descending long-term trendline and ascending support
This is a falling wedge/compression structure, not yet a confirmed reversal
Total Quant Regime Score: 48 / 100
Fear / Greed State: Fear → Neutral
Drawdown >45% from highs
Volatility compressed, momentum muted
Sellers exhausted, but buyers not aggressive yet
Interpretation: CRCL is transitioning from panic liquidation into structural basing. Per MCC strategy, this is where value starts to emerge, but per MCC risk management, confirmation is still required. This is a setup, not a signal.
2. MCC Portfolio Context
Engine Role: Equities Engine (crypto-infrastructure exposure)
Volatility Profile: High (regulatory + crypto sentiment sensitive)
Rotation Logic:
Accumulate only at deep discount
Trim into strength; never chase
Engine Interaction:
Capital deployed here should come from private credit yield drips, not core risk capital
3. BUY SCENARIO - Long-Only Accumulation
Primary Buy Zone (Best Risk–Reward)
$76 – $79 (Current base support, prior absorption zone, 78.6% fib)
Secondary Buy Zone (High Asymmetry)
$50 – $53 (Projected trendline intersection + deep discount demand)
Extreme Value / Capitulation Zone
$43 – $45 (161.8% fib extension, panic valuation)
Technical + Behavioral Confirmation:
Bullish daily close above $85 with volume = early signal
Break & hold above descending red trendline = trend change
No buying on green candles near $100+
Acquisition Quality:
Margin of Safety:
~25% at $78
~45–50% at $50s
60% at $43s
Example Allocation ($1,000 notional):
$400 @ $78
$400 @ $52
$200 @ $44 (only if fear spike)
4. SELL / RISK-OFF SCENARIO
Sell / Trim Zones:
$100 – $108 (MCC price target / descending trendline resistance)
$130 – $150 (prior distribution highs, greed phase)
Purpose:
De-risk infrastructure beta
Rotate gains into:
Gold
Broad equities
Private credit
5. Cycle-Based ROI Bands
Bear Case: −20% (loss of $76 → $60 test)
Base Case: +25–40% (range expansion into $100–108)
Bull Case: +70–90% (only if trendline breaks and holds)
6. Risk Profile
Volatility: High
Drawdown Risk: Still elevated below $76
Trend Strength: Weak but improving
Success Probability: 41%
Total Risk Score (1–100): 47
7. MCC Quant Rules Applied
Long-only
No leverage
No buying into resistance
Capital deployed only at margin of safety
Crypto-adjacent exposure sized smaller than spot crypto
8. Strategic Interpretation (MCC Risk Mandate)
If price holds $76–79 and compresses → accumulate cautiously
If price breaks below $76 → wait for $50s
If price breaks above descending trendline + $85 → re-rate to momentum bias
If price reaches $100–108 → trim mechanically
9. One-Liner
#CRCL is basing after a deep drawdown; MCC accumulates only at $78 or lower, targeting $100–108 on trend resolution, with a 47 risk score pending confirmation.
⚠️ LEGAL DISCLAIMER (MANDATORY)
This content is quantitative research and technical analysis for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or solicitation to trade. Investing in securities involves risk, including potential loss of capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.
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