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MCC Quant Research #CRCL

  • Dec 29, 2025
  • 2 min read

Asset: Circle Internet Group Inc (NYSE: CRCL)

Timeframe: Weekly

Vehicle Role: Crypto Infrastructure / Stablecoin Issuer

Fund Mandate: Crypto Engine Asymmetric Growth


Issue: December 27, 2025



1. Market Regime & Quant Score

  • Market Regime: Correction (Decline Phase)


    Total Quant Regime Score: 45 / 100

  • Fear / Greed Quant State: High Fear (Drawdown ~70%, channel lower)

  • Interpretation: Price in downchannel with lower highs; momentum bearish, no base yet. Asymmetry is moderate for reset potential.



2. MCC Portfolio Context

  • Role inside MCC engines: Crypto Engine core (USDC rails, payments).

  • Volatility behavior: Extreme (80%+ drawdowns).

  • Rotation logic: Accumulate deep fear; trim rebounds.

  • Interaction with other engines: Direct crypto; rotate to private credit/gold.



3. BUY SCENARIO — Long-Only Accumulation

  • Buy Zones:

    • Primary: $50–$60 (Channel support)

    • Secondary: $37–$45 (Deep reset)


  • Technical + behavioral justification: Zones at lower trend; fear capitulation asymmetry.

  • Acquisition quality rating: 60/100 (Speculative in decline).


    Example Allocation ($1,000 notional):

    • Primary Zone: $600

    • Secondary Zone: $400



4. SELL / RISK-OFF SCENARIO (NO SHORTS)

  • Sell zones:

    • Trim: $474–$1092 (Greed extension)


  • Purpose (trim/rotate): Capture rebounds; mitigate decline.

  • Capital destination: Private credit (10–15% yield compounding) or gold.



5. Cycle-Based ROI Bands

Cycle

Target Range

Est. ROI

Bear / Sideways

$40–$80

-50%–+0%

Base Case

$474–$600

+400%–+600%

Bull Expansion

$1092+

+1000%+

(From ~$81; crypto cycle tied).



6. Risk Profile

  • Volatility: Extreme (~80%+)

  • Drawdown risk: 80–95%

  • Trend strength: Weak (Downchannel)

  • Success probability: 40–60% (Decline; reset potential)


    Total Risk Score: 52 / 100


    Fundamental Health Check:

    • Cash & Equivalents: ~$1.5B (Strong runway).

    • Total Debt: ~$1.55B (Elevated; net negative ~$1.5B).

    • Revenue Trend: Acceleration (~$740M Q3 +66% YoY).

    • Profitability: Losses narrowing (Path to positive).

    • Overall: Stablecoin growth supports; monitor regulatory/burn.



7. MCC Quant Rules Applied

  • Accumulate fear in the crypto core.

  • Recycle private credit yields (12–15% APY quarterly) into zones.

  • Trim rebounds; rotate hedges.

  • Tactical is in decline.



8. Strategic Interpretation (MCC Risk Mandate)

  • IF price reaches $50–$55 → begin staged accumulation

  • IF price breaks $37 → reassess business viability

  • IF price rallies above $150 → trim aggressively

  • IF crypto enters mania → rotate profits out early



9. One-Liner

$CRCL in decline fear—MCC accumulates reset asymmetry, rotates to yields.







⚠️ LEGAL DISCLAIMER (MANDATORY)

This content is quantitative research and technical analysis for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or solicitation to trade. Investing in securities involves risk, including potential loss of capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.

 
 
 

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