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MCC Quant Research #ETHT

  • 2 days ago
  • 3 min read
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Issue: December 19, 2025

Asset: ProShares Ultra Ether ETF (ETHT) — NYSE Arca

Timeframe: Weekly

Vehicle Role: Levered Beta

Fund Mandate: Long-only, cycle-based accumulation



1. Market Regime & Quant Score


Weighted Quant Components (Weekly):

  • MAs alignment: 76%Price remains materially below the 20W and 200W moving averages with bearish compression and no reclaim attempt.

  • DMI trend strength: 74%Strong bearish dominance persists; downside momentum is slowing but not reversing.

  • Ichimoku cloud positioning: 72%Price fully below cloud; cloud thickness confirms overhead resistance.

  • Momentum (MACD / Stochastic): 67%MACD bearish; stochastic oversold producing only corrective bounces.

  • Structure & trend integrity: 81%Descending channel intact with consistent lower highs and failed breakouts.

  • Volume / distribution: 70%Rallies continue to show distribution; no sustained accumulation footprint.

  • RSI offset: -10%RSI sub-40 provides limited downside relief but no regime shift.

Market Regime: BearishQuant Regime Score: 75 / 100

Interpretation:Higher-timeframe structure confirms continuation risk within a bearish channel. Current price behavior reflects stabilization attempts, not a confirmed accumulation phase.



2. MCC Portfolio Context


ETHT is treated strictly as tactical levered ETH exposure, never as a core holding.

  • Role: Convex upside enhancer during ETH-led expansion cycles.

  • Volatility & drawdown: Extreme; historical drawdowns range 70–80% in adverse regimes.

  • Exposure management:

    • Increase exposure only at deep-cycle support with structural validation.

    • Reduce exposure aggressively into resistance to manage leverage decay.

  • Portfolio complement: Provides ETH torque while BTC/ETH spot holdings anchor portfolio stability. Allocation is capped and actively risk-managed.



3. BUY SCENARIO — Long-Only Accumulation


Buy Zone 1 (Primary): $17.73 – $33.02

  • Technical justification:

    • Lower boundary of descending channel

    • Prior liquidity pocket and demand zone

    • Weekly structural support confluence

  • MCC deployment style: Staged, contingent on stabilization.


Buy Zone 2 (Extended / Deep Value): Below $15.15

  • Technical justification:

    • Historical cycle lows

    • Maximum asymmetry under forced liquidation conditions

  • MCC deployment style: Defensive / opportunistic only


Example Capital Allocation ($1,000):

Zone

Allocation

Entry Range

Rationale

Primary

$700

$17.73–$33.02

Core accumulation at structural support

Extended

$300

< $15.15

Tail-risk capture / drawdown buffer



4. SELL / RISK-OFF SCENARIO (NO SHORTS)


Sell Zone 1: $106.85 – $113.35

  • Purpose: Trim exposure / pause buying

  • Redeploy: Cash or spot ETH/BTC ETFs


Sell Zone 2: Above $140.50

  • Purpose: Rotate gains / de-risk leverage

  • Redeploy: Core BTC/ETH spot or lower-volatility sleeves

Statement:Sells are risk-management actions, not bearish bets.



5. Cycle-Based ROI Bands (MANDATORY)

Calculated from primary buy zone midpoint (~$25.38)

Cycle Regime

Target Range

Estimated ROI

Bear / Sideways

$17.73 – $60.42

0% – 140%

Base Case

$106.85 – $113.35

320% – 350%

Bull Expansion

> $140.50

450%+



6. Risk Profile

  • Volatility: Extreme

  • Drawdown Risk: ~75%

  • Trend Strength: Moderate (bearish)

  • Success Probability: ~55–63%

  • Total Risk Score: 84 / 100


Hard Invalidation Rules:

  • Weekly close below $17.73

  • Sustained breakdown of lower channel support with expanding volume



7. MCC Quant Rules Applied

  • Trade only with higher-timeframe structure

  • Buy weakness, never chase

  • Accumulate at liquidity, not resistance

  • Trim exposure into strength

  • Preserve dry powder during regime uncertainty

  • Rotate gains into lower-volatility assets



8. Strategic Interpretation (MCC View)

  • Now: Preserve capital; monitor primary buy zone for staged entries.

  • If price moves higher: Trim into resistance and rotate defensively.

  • If price moves lower: Scale only at defined support if structure holds; otherwise stand down.


No forecasts. If–then execution only.




9. One-Liner

MCC Quant view on #ETHT: bearish weekly regime with disciplined long-only accumulation at structural support and risk-managed trims into resistance, supported by a Total Quant Score of 84/100 under MCC’s strategy and R&D investment framework.#ManhattanCrypto #EtherETF #LeveredBeta #QuantResearch #CycleBased



⚠️ Legal Disclaimer

This content is quantitative research and technical analysis for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or solicitation to trade. Investing in digital assets and securities involves risk, including potential loss of capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.

 
 
 

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