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MCC Quant Research #GDX

  • 12 hours ago
  • 3 min read
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VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE Arca: GDX)



Asset: VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

Timeframe: Weekly

Vehicle Role: Gold Engine — Inflation Hedge / Crisis Insurance / Rotation Sink

Fund Mandate: Long-only, cycle-aware hedge exposure with disciplined rotation

Issue: December 19, 2025



1. Market Regime & Quant Score


Weighted Quant Components (Weekly):

  • MAs alignment: 82%Price remains above rising long-term moving averages; structural uptrend intact.

  • DMI trend strength: 71%. Trend remains positive, though momentum is moderating after a substantial advance.

  • Ichimoku cloud positioning: 79%Price above cloud; bullish regime intact with no structural breakdown.

  • Momentum (MACD / Stochastic): 68%Momentum rolling over from overbought levels; corrective pressure developing.

  • Structure & trend integrity: 80%Higher highs and higher lows intact; current move consistent with a healthy pullback.

  • Volume/distribution: 73%. Some distribution observed near the sell zone; not indicative of a complete trend reversal.

  • RSI offset (neutral-to-overbought): -7%


Market Regime: Corrective pullback within primary bullish gold cycle

Total Quant Regime Score: 77 / 100


Interpretation: GDX remains in a structurally bullish regime aligned with the broader gold cycle. The recent rejection at resistance reflects profit-taking rather than systemic risk. This environment favors patience and rotation-driven accumulation rather than chasing strength.



2. MCC Portfolio Context


GDX operates as a core hedge and insurance sleeve within MCC’s Gold Engine.

  • Role inside MCC: Volatility hedge and capital preservation vehicle

  • Volatility behavior: Moderate; spikes during macro stress and currency debasement cycles

  • Rotation logic: Capital rotates into GDX during equity or crypto risk-off phases

  • Interaction with other engines: Offsets drawdowns in crypto and equities; funded primarily by private credit yield recycling



3. BUY SCENARIO — Long-Only Accumulation


Buy Zone 1 (Primary Support): $81.50 – $79.00

  • Prior resistance turned into support

  • Trendline confluence and controlled pullback

  • Acquisition Quality Score: 76 / 100


Buy Zone 2 (Secondary Accumulation): $72.00 – $70.00

  • Significant structural support and volume node

  • Likely coincides with broader risk-off sentiment

  • Acquisition Quality Score: 86 / 100


Buy Zone 3 (Deep Hedge Deployment): $52.00 – $50.00

  • Crisis-level drawdown scenario

  • Maximum hedge asymmetry

  • Acquisition Quality Score: 94 / 100



Example Allocation ($1,000 notional):

Zone

Allocation

Entry Range

MCC Rationale

Buy Zone 1

$400

$81.50–79.00

Trend support

Buy Zone 2

$350

$72.00–70.00

High-conviction hedge

Buy Zone 3

$250

$52.00–50.00

Crisis protection



4. SELL / RISK-OFF SCENARIO (NO SHORTS)


Sell Zone 1: $85.00 – $88.00

  • Prior rejection area and short-term resistance

  • Action: Trim exposure; rotate capital to reserves or private credit


Sell Zone 2: $94.00 – $108.00

  • Bull-cycle extension and momentum excess

  • Action: Aggressive de-risking; redeploy during future volatility


Capital Destination: Private credit cash reserve, followed by redeployment into crypto or equities during fear cycles.



5. Cycle-Based ROI Bands


(From primary buy midpoint ≈ $80.25)

Cycle Phase

Target Range

Estimated ROI

Bear / Sideways

$70–85

-13% to +6%

Base Case

$94–100

+17% to +25%

Bull Extension

$108+

+35%+



6. Risk Profile

  • Volatility: Moderate

  • Drawdown Risk: ~25–35% during gold corrections

  • Trend Strength: Strong (macro-aligned)

  • Success Probability: ~75–80%

  • Total Risk Score (1–100): 82 / 100


Hard Invalidation: Weekly structural failure below ~$50.



7. MCC Quant Rules Applied

  • Classified under Gold Engine (hedge and insurance)

  • Long-only; no leverage

  • Accumulation only during pullbacks or systemic fear

  • Trims executed during strength and extension

  • Capital sourced from private credit yield recycling

  • Gold exposure used to stabilize total portfolio volatility



8. Strategic Interpretation (MCC Risk Mandate)

  • Current stance: Neutral-to-constructive; pullback in progress

  • If price holds, Buy Zone 1: Begin staged accumulation

  • If price breaks into Buy Zone 2: Increase hedge deployment materially

  • If price accelerates into sell zones: Trim and rotate; no chasing


Execution is rule-based. No forecasts.



9. One-Liner

MCC long-only view on #GDX: bullish gold-cycle structure with a corrective pullback underway, favoring disciplined accumulation into support and rotation-driven trims above resistance, supported by a 77/100 quant score.




LEGAL DISCLAIMER This content is quantitative research and technical analysis for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or solicitation to trade. Investing involves risk, including loss of capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.

 
 
 

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