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MCC Quant Research GDX

  • Dec 31, 2025
  • 2 min read

Asset: VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX)

Timeframe: Monthly / Weekly (HTF bias)

Vehicle Role: Defensive Cyclical / Inflation Hedge

Fund Mandate: Gold Treasury + Tactical Torque Overlay


Issue: December 30, 2025



1. Market Regime & Quant Score


Market Regime: Primary Bull Structure → Late-Cycle Expansion (Overheated, Pullback Risk)


Total Quant Regime Score: 78 / 100


Quant Breakdown (HTF-weighted):

  • MA Structure (50W / 200W): 88% (strong bullish alignment)

  • Trend Strength (ADX / DMI): 74% (trend intact, momentum decelerating)

  • RSI (14W): 83 (overbought; cooling likely)

  • Structure Integrity: 85% (higher highs/lows intact)

  • Volume Expansion: 76% (institutional participation confirmed)

  • RSI Offset (overbought penalty): -15%


Fear / Greed State: Greed → CoolingInterpretation: Secular bull trend intact. Current price extended above trend; probability favors controlled pullback into structural demand rather than trend failure.



2. MCC Portfolio Context

  • Engine Role: Gold Miners Torque (beta to gold)

  • Function: Inflation hedge + crisis convexity

  • Correlation: Inverse to real rates; positive convexity in monetary easing cycles

  • Rotation Logic: Accumulate pullbacks → trim strength → recycle into private credit/cash



3. BUY SCENARIO — Structured Accumulation (NO CHASING)


Primary Buy Zone

$84 – $86

  • Prior breakout + trendline confluence

  • 61.8% Fib retrace of impulse leg

  • Probability: High (first institutional defense)


Secondary Buy Zone

$69 – $71

  • Rising 200W structure

  • Deep retrace but still bull-valid

  • Probability: Medium (requires macro risk-off)

Acquisition Quality Rating: 80 / 100



4. SELL / TRIM SCENARIO (Risk Management)


Trim Zone 1 (Partial)

$92 – $97

  • Prior resistance / measured move

  • Expect supply response


Trim Zone 2 (Aggressive)

$116 – $124

  • Fib extension + cycle extreme

  • Rotate the majority into yield or cash



5. ROI MATRIX (MANDATORY)


Assumes blended entry near $85

Scenario

Target Price

Est. ROI

Shallow Bounce

$92

+8%

Base Case

$97

+14%

Bull Continuation

$116

+36%

Cycle Extension

$124

+46%

If secondary entry ($70) triggers:

  • $97 = +38%

  • $116 = +66%

  • $124 = +77%



6. Risk Profile

  • Volatility: Medium–High

  • Drawdown Risk: 20–30% (within bull trend)

  • Trend Failure Level: Sustained close below $69


    Success Probability: 70–80% (trend continuation bias)

    Total Risk Score: 28 / 100 (Low–Moderate)



7. MCC Quant Rules Applied

  • No momentum chasing above the sell zone

  • Buy only at structural demand

  • Trim into strength; recycle into private credit

  • Maintain gold exposure as a systemic hedge



8. Strategic Interpretation (MCC Risk Mandate)

  • Above $92: Trim risk, protect capital

  • $84–86: High-quality accumulation

  • $69–71: Aggressive buy for macro stress

  • Below $69: Reassess bull thesis



9. One-Liner

#GDX remains a structural bull. #MCC waits for pullback to compound convexity, trims into strength, and preserves capital discipline. #manhattancryptocapital





⚠️ LEGAL DISCLAIMER (MANDATORY)

This content is quantitative research and technical analysis for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or solicitation to trade. Investing in securities involves risk, including potential loss of capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.

 
 
 

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