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MCC Quant Research #GLD

  • 11 hours ago
  • 3 min read
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SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE Arca: GLD)



Asset: SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)

Timeframe: Weekly

Vehicle Role: Gold Engine — Monetary Hedge / Crisis Insurance

Fund Mandate: Long-only, cycle-aware hedge exposure with disciplined rotation

Issue: December 19, 2025



1. Market Regime & Quant Score


Weighted Quant Components (Weekly):

  • MAs alignment: 84%

  • Price remains above rising long-term moving averages; structural bull trend intact.

  • DMI trend strength: 72%.

  • Trend remains positive, but momentum is moderating after rejection at resistance.

  • Ichimoku cloud positioning: 81%

  • Price above cloud; bullish regime maintained with no structural breakdown.

  • Momentum (MACD / Stochastic): 67%

  • Momentum rolling over from overbought conditions; corrective consolidation developing.

  • Structure & trend integrity: 79%

  • Higher-highs and higher-lows intact; pullback consistent with trend digestion.

  • Volume/distribution: 74%.

  • Distribution visible near the sell zone; not yet indicative of trend reversal.

  • RSI offset (overbought → neutral): -8%


Market Regime: Corrective consolidation within primary bullish gold cycle

Total Quant Regime Score: 76 / 100


Interpretation: GLD remains structurally bullish within a broader gold upcycle. Current price action reflects profit-taking and compression near resistance rather than systemic weakness. Risk-reward favors patience and rotation-driven accumulation rather than momentum chasing.



2. MCC Portfolio Context


GLD functions as the core monetary hedge within MCC’s Gold Engine.

  • Role inside MCC: Portfolio insurance against macro stress, currency debasement, and crypto volatility

  • Volatility behavior: Low-to-moderate; spikes during systemic risk events

  • Rotation logic: Capital rotates into GLD during equity/crypto risk-off regimes

  • Interaction with other engines: Funded primarily by private credit yield recycling; offsets volatility from crypto and equities



3. BUY SCENARIO Long-Only Accumulation


Buy Zone 1 (Primary Support): $362 – $358

  • Prior resistance turned into support

  • Trendline and volume confluence

  • Acquisition Quality Score: 75 / 100


Buy Zone 2 (Secondary Accumulation): $348 – $340

  • Significant structural support and prior consolidation

  • Likely aligns with broader risk-off sentiment

  • Acquisition Quality Score: 85 / 100


Buy Zone 3 (Deep Hedge Deployment): $316 – $305

  • Crisis-level drawdown scenario

  • Maximum hedge asymmetry

  • Acquisition Quality Score: 93 / 100



Example Allocation ($1,000 notional):

Zone

Allocation

Entry Range

MCC Rationale

Buy Zone 1

$400

$362–358

Trend support

Buy Zone 2

$350

$348–340

High-conviction hedge

Buy Zone 3

$250

$316–305

Crisis insurance



4. SELL / RISK-OFF SCENARIO (NO SHORTS)


Sell Zone 1: $395 – $405

  • Prior rejection zone and momentum saturation

  • Action: Trim exposure; rotate capital to cash or private credit


Sell Zone 2: $460 – $470

  • Bull-cycle extension and monetary stress premium

  • Action: Aggressive de-risking; prepare for future redeployment


Capital Destination: Private credit cash reserve → redeployed into crypto or equities during fear regimes.



5. Cycle-Based ROI Bands


(From primary buy midpoint ≈ $360)

Cycle Phase

Target Range

Estimated ROI

Bear / Sideways

$340–380

-6% to +6%

Base Case

$405–425

+12% to +18%

Bull Extension

$460+

+28%+



6. Risk Profile

  • Volatility: Low-to-moderate

  • Drawdown Risk: ~20–30% during gold corrections

  • Trend Strength: Strong (macro-aligned)

  • Success Probability: ~75–80%

  • Total Risk Score (1–100): 81 / 100


Hard Invalidation: Weekly structural failure below ~$305.



7. MCC Quant Rules Applied

  • Classified under Gold Engine (hedge & insurance)

  • Long-only; no leverage

  • Accumulate during pullbacks and systemic fear

  • Trim into strength and overextension

  • Capital sourced from private credit yield recycling

  • Used to stabilize total portfolio volatility and fund future rotations



8. Strategic Interpretation (MCC Risk Mandate)

  • Current stance: Neutral-to-constructive; consolidation phase

  • If price holds, Buy Zone 1: Begin staged accumulation

  • If price breaks into Buy Zone 2: Increase hedge deployment materially

  • If price accelerates into sell zones: Trim and rotate; no chasing


Execution remains rule-based. No forecasts.



9. One-Liner


MCC long-only view on #GLD: structurally bullish gold regime in corrective consolidation, favoring disciplined accumulation into support and rotation-driven trims above resistance, supported by a 76/100 quant score.








LEGAL DISCLAIMER This content is quantitative research and technical analysis for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or solicitation to trade. Investing involves risk, including loss of capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.

 
 
 

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