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MCC Quant Research #ON

  • Dec 30, 2025
  • 3 min read

Asset: ON Semiconductor Corp. (NASDAQ: ON)

Timeframe: Monthly (Primary), Weekly (Tactical Overlay)

Vehicle Role: Core Equity / Semiconductor Cycle Leader

Fund Mandate: Equities Engine — Core Compounder


Issue: December 30, 2025



1. Market Regime & Quant Score


Market Regime:➡ Secular Bull Trend → Mid-Cycle Correction (Post-Distribution Reset)


Weighted Quant Components (Monthly):

  • MA Structure (40M / 200M): 82% — price retracing into rising long-term trend

  • Trend Strength (DMI): 71% — weakening but intact primary trend

  • Ichimoku (HTF): 75% — price near cloud support, no macro failure

  • Momentum (MACD / RSI): 64% — bearish momentum decelerating, RSI ~45

  • Structure Integrity: 80% — higher-low structure still valid

  • Volume Profile: 73% — distribution confirmed near $110, absorption developing


RSI Offset: −6% (neutral-to-oversold)


Total Quant Regime Score: 78 / 100


Fear / Greed State:➡ Controlled Fear (post-greed unwind, no panic selling)


Interpretation: ON has completed a textbook greed-phase distribution near $110–115 and is now retracing into long-term structural demand. This is a cycle reset, not a trend failure—consistent with Graham-style margin-of-safety re-entry and Dalio/Ibn Khaldun mid-cycle contraction dynamics.



2. MCC Portfolio Context

  • Engine Role: Core equity compounder within Equities Engine

  • Sector Exposure: Semiconductors / Power & Auto Chips

  • Volatility Profile: Medium–High (cyclical)

  • Rotation Logic: Accumulate fear → trim strength → recycle into credit/gold

  • Correlation: Moderately correlated with tech indices; diversifies crypto engine



3. BUY SCENARIO — Long-Only Accumulation (Institutional)


Buy Zones (Confluence-Based)

Primary Buy Zone (High-Probability):

  • $42–45

  • 38.2% Fib retracement

  • Rising long-term trendline

  • Historical demand + volume node

Secondary Buy Zone (Deep Value):

  • $26–28

  • 23.6% Fib retracement

  • Secular trend support

  • Cycle washout zone (macro fear)


Acquisition Quality Rating: 82 / 100 (Core-quality cyclical)

Example Institutional Allocation (Notional $1,000,000)

  • $600,000 → Primary Zone ($42–45)

  • $400,000 → Secondary Zone ($26–28)



4. SELL / RISK-OFF SCENARIO (NO SHORTING)

Sell / Trim Zones:

  • Trim 1: $63–70 (Range mean reversion)

  • Trim 2: $87–95 (Prior distribution shelf)

  • Major De-Risk: $110–115 (Cycle high / greed zone)


Capital Rotation:

  • Private credit (10–15% yield)

  • Gold / defensive equities



5. ROI BY LEVEL (From Each Buy Zone)

From Primary Buy Zone ($44 avg)

Target Level

Price

ROI

Mean Reversion

$70

+59%

Cycle Resistance

$95

+116%

Cycle High

$115

+161%

Bull Extension

$180

+309%

From Secondary Buy Zone ($27 avg)

Target Level

Price

ROI

Mean Reversion

$70

+159%

Cycle Resistance

$95

+252%

Cycle High

$115

+326%

Bull Extension

$180

+567%



6. Risk Profile

  • Volatility: Medium–High (cyclical equity)

  • Max Historical Drawdown: ~65% (cycle troughs)

  • Trend Risk: Moderate (trend intact)


    Success Probability: 70–80% over full cycle


    Total Risk Score: 78 / 100



Fundamental Health Snapshot:

  • Balance Sheet: Strong cash generation

  • Debt: Manageable

  • Margins: Cyclically compressed, historically resilient

  • Competitive Moat: Power semis, auto, industrial tailwinds



7. MCC Quant Rules Applied

  • Core equity position sizing

  • No leverage, no shorting

  • Accumulate only inside fear zones

  • Trim into greed, recycle yield

  • Respect cycle duration (18–36 months)



8. Strategic Interpretation (MCC Risk Mandate)

  • Above $42: Accumulate gradually

  • Below $28: Aggressive long-term buy

  • Above $70: Begin trims

  • Above $110: Heavy de-risk

  • Failure of $26: Hedge via gold/credit, reassess macro



9. One-Liner

ON Semiconductor is in a high-quality cyclical reset, offering institutional-grade asymmetry with 2–5× upside over a full semiconductor cycle.



⚠️ LEGAL DISCLAIMER (MANDATORY)

This content is quantitative research and technical analysis for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or solicitation to trade. Investing in securities involves risk, including potential loss of capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisi

 
 
 

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