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MCC Quant Research #ORCL

  • Dec 28, 2025
  • 3 min read

Asset: Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL)

Timeframe: Weekly (Primary) / Monthly (Structure)

Vehicle Role: Equities Engine — Cloud & AI Infrastructure

Fund Mandate: Defensive Growth / Cash-Flow Compounder

Issue: December 27, 2025



1. Market Regime & Quant Score


Market Regime: ➡ Primary Bull Structure → Mid-Cycle Correction (Fear Compression)


Weighted Quant Components (Weekly):

  • MAs alignment: 76% 

    (price retracing toward rising 40W/200W structure)

  • DMI trend strength: 68% 

    (trend weakening post-distribution)

  • Ichimoku positioning: 72% 

    (above cloud on HTF; inside cloud short-term)

  • Momentum (MACD / Stochastic): 63% 

    (bearish momentum cooling)

  • Structure integrity: 78% 

    (higher-lows intact, no macro breakdown)

  • Volume/distribution: 70% 

    (distribution confirmed near $340 zone)

  • RSI offset (neutral-to-oversold): -6%


Total Quant Regime Score: 76 / 100


Fear / Greed Quant State: ➡ Controlled Fear (post-greed unwind, no panic)


Interpretation: ORCL has completed a greed-phase distribution near $340–350 and is now retracing into structural demand. This is not a trend failure, it is a reset inside a secular uptrend, consistent with Ibn Khaldun's mid-cycle contraction and Graham-style re-entry zones.



2. MCC Portfolio Context

Engine Role:

  • Equities Engine anchor

  • Defensive cash-flow compounder balancing crypto volatility


Volatility Behavior:

  • Medium (lower than AI hyperscalers, higher than utilities)

  • Drawdowns historically have been 40 – 55% during corrections


Rotation Logic:

  • Capital rotates into ORCL during equity fear

  • Capital rotates out during AI-greed extensions


Interaction with Other Engines:

  • Crypto risk-off → ORCL accumulation

  • ORCL trims → Private Credit (yield) or Gold (risk parity)



3. BUY SCENARIO — Long-Only Accumulation

(Graham + Lynch + MCC valuation layering)


Intrinsic Value Stack (MANDATORY)


Using multi-method averaging (Graham EPS power, normalized FCF, cycle-adjusted multiple):

Valuation Tier

Price Zone

Meaning

Fair Value

$185–$205

Fully priced growth

Intrinsic Value

$145–$165

Margin of safety begins

Deep Discount

$120–$135

Cycle-fear accumulation


Buy Zones (Chart-Aligned)

  • Primary Buy (Intrinsic): $145 – $165

    • Weekly trendline + 50 – 61.8% retrace

    • Highest probability risk-adjusted entry


  • Secondary Buy (Deep Discount): $120 – $135

    • Long-term trend + 23.6% fib + prior base

    • Graham “fat pitch” zone


  • Extreme Tail (Black Swan): <$110

    • Only if macro credit stress appears


Acquisition Quality Rating: 86 / 100


Example Allocation ($1,000 notional)

  • $500 → $145 – $165

  • $350 → $120 – $135

  • $150 → Reserved (tail risk)



4. SELL / RISK-OFF SCENARIO (NO SHORTS)


Sell Zones (Trim / Rotate):

  • Trim Zone: $270 – $300

  • Major Distribution: $330 – $350

  • Greed Extension: $420+


Purpose:

  • De-risk

  • Recycle capital into:

    • Private credit (10–15% yield)

    • Gold (volatility sink)



5. Cycle-Based ROI Bands

Scenario

Price Range

Est. ROI

Bear / Chop

$140–$200

-15% → +10%

Base Case

$270–$300

+35% → +65%

Bull Expansion

$420–$500

+120% → +180%



6. Risk Profile

Volatility: Medium

Drawdown Risk: 40 – 55%

Trend Strength: Strong HTF, weak STF

Success Probability: 68 – 78%


Fundamental Health Check (Aligned with PDFs)

  • Cash & Equivalents: ~$9–10B (adequate)

  • Total Debt: ~$130B (high but serviceable)

  • Revenue Trend: Positive, cloud accelerating

  • Profitability: Strong operating margins

  • Overall: Cash-flow durable, not speculative. Debt is the primary risk, not earnings.


Total Risk Score: 82 / 100



7. MCC Quant Rules Applied

  • Long-only accumulation in fear

  • Margin of safety enforced

  • No narrative chasing

  • Rotation discipline enforced

  • Capital preservation prioritized



8. Strategic Interpretation (MCC Risk Mandate)

  • IF price holds $145–165 → accumulate

  • IF price drops into $120s → aggressive scale

  • IF price reclaims $250+ → trim 25–40%

  • IF macro liquidity tightens → rotate to gold + credit




9. One-Liner

$ORCL is resetting within a secular bull market. MCC accumulates at intrinsic value, trims into AI-greed, and recycles capital with discipline.






⚠️ LEGAL DISCLAIMER

This content is quantitative research and technical analysis for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or solicitation to trade. Investing involves risk, including loss of capital. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a licensed professional.

 
 
 

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