MCC Quant Research QQQ

Asset: Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ)

Timeframe: Monthly / Weekly (Structure-Defining)

Vehicle Role: Core Growth Equity / Nasdaq-100 Proxy

Fund Mandate: Equities Engine — Core Allocation (Non-Levered)

Issue: December 31, 2025

1. Market Regime & Quant Score

• Market Regime: Late Expansion → Early Distribution

  
  

  Total Quant Regime Score: 62 / 100

  
  

  Fear / Greed State: Mild Greed

  • RSI (Monthly): ~75 (Overbought)

  • Price: Upper channel + Fib 100%

  
  

  Interpretation: QQQ is extended after a substantial multi-year advance. Trend remains bullish, but risk/reward is asymmetric against fresh capital at current levels. Best use case is to trim/wait for a pullback, not to chase.

2. MCC Portfolio Context

• Role inside MCC engines: Core equities growth engine (non-levered anchor vs. TQQQ satellite).

• Volatility Behavior: Moderate (relative to levered ETFs).

• Rotation Logic:

  • Accumulate during structural pullbacks

  • Trim into macro greed/valuation expansion

• Cross-Engine Interaction:

  • Profits rotate into private credit + gold

  • Serves as a volatility dampener vs. crypto & leverage

3. BUY SCENARIO — Structured Accumulation (NO CHASING)

Buy Zones (from chart structure):

Zone	Price Range	Technical Basis
Primary Buy	$520 – $488	61.8% Fib + prior range high
Secondary Buy	$445 – $399	50–38.2% Fib + trend support
Extreme Reset	$320 – $260	Long-term channel base

Behavioral Justification: Institutional accumulation historically occurs at the Fib confluence + rising-trend support, not at highs.

Acquisition Quality Rating: 80 / 100 (high quality, cycle-dependent)

4. SELL / TRIM SCENARIO (RISK MANAGEMENT)

Sell / Trim Zones:

Action	Price Range	Purpose
Trim	$630 – $690	Current overextension
Heavy De-Risk	$780 – $880	Cycle peak/valuation extreme

Capital rotated to:

• Private credit (12–15% yield)

• Gold / defensive hedges

• Cash for redeploy

5. Cycle-Based ROI Bands (MANDATORY)

Assuming Weighted Entry: ~$505

Cycle Case	Target Price	Est. ROI
Bear / Sideways	$450	-11%
Base Case	$690	+37%
Bull Expansion	$780	+54%
Extreme Bull	$880	+74%

Risk-Adjusted Expectation: QQQ is not a home-run trade here — it is a capital preservation + compounding vehicle.

6. Risk Profile

• Volatility: Moderate

• Max Historical Drawdown: ~35–40%

• Trend Strength: Strong but extended

• Success Probability (12–24 mo): 65–75%

• Total Risk Score: 72 / 100

Fundamental Health (ETF Level):

• Tracks Nasdaq-100 (Mega-cap tech dominance)

• Strong earnings visibility (AI, cloud, semis)

• Valuation stretched vs. historical averages

• Liquidity: Excellent

7. MCC Quant Rules Applied

• Do not buy core assets at channel highs

• Buy fear, sell greed

• Non-levered exposure held for a longer duration

• Use leverage (TQQQ) only after pullbacks

• Always pair equities with yield engines

8. Strategic Interpretation (MCC Risk Mandate)

• Above $630: Trim/hold only

• $520–$488: First deploy zone

• $445–$399: Aggressive accumulation

• Below $320: Crisis-level opportunity

• No leverage added at highs

9. One-Liner

#QQQ is extended but structurally bullish. #MCC waits for pullback, compounds patiently, and rotates greed into yield.

⚠️ LEGAL DISCLAIMER (MANDATORY)

This content is quantitative research and technical analysis for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or solicitation to trade. Investing in securities involves risk, including potential loss of capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.