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MCC Quant Research #QUBT

  • Dec 30, 2025
  • 2 min read

Asset: Quantum Computing Inc (NASDAQ: QUBT)

Timeframe: Weekly

Vehicle Role: Speculative Tech / Quantum Infrastructure

Fund Mandate: Equities Engine Asymmetric Satellite


Issue: December 30, 2025



1. Market Regime & Quant Score

  • Market Regime: Correction (Decline Phase with Fear Compression)


  • Total Quant Regime Score: 50 / 100

  • Fear / Greed Quant State: High Fear (Drawdown ~60%, channel lower, RSI ~43 neutral-oversold)

  • Interpretation: Price in down channel; momentum bearish, structure weak. Potential base forming, but no confirmation—high asymmetry in reset.



2. MCC Portfolio Context

  • Role inside MCC engines: Equities satellite for quantum tech exposure.

  • Volatility Behavior: Extreme (80%+ drawdowns).

  • Rotation Logic: Tactical fear entry; trim rebounds.

  • Interaction with other engines: Synergies with crypto (quantum-resistant); rotate to private credit/gold.



3. BUY SCENARIO — Long-Only Accumulation

  • Buy Zones:

    • Primary: $10–$13 (38.2% Fib + channel support)

    • Secondary: $6–$8 (23.6% Fib deep)

  • Technical + Behavioral Justification: Zones at Fib clusters; fear compression for asymmetry.

  • Acquisition Quality Rating: 65/100 (Speculative).


    Example Allocation ($1,000 notional):

    • Primary Zone: $600

    • Secondary Zone: $400



4. SELL / RISK-OFF SCENARIO (NO SHORTS)

  • Sell Zones:

    • Trim: $21–$27 (78.6–100% Fib)

    • De-Risk: $44+ (Extension)

  • Purpose (trim/rotate): Capture gains; mitigate decline.

  • Capital Destination: Private credit (10–15% yield compounding) or gold.



5. Cycle-Based ROI Bands

Cycle

Target Range

Est. ROI

Bear / Sideways

$8–$13

-25%–+20%

Base Case

$21–$30

+100%–+180%

Bull Expansion

$44–$60

+300%–+450%

(From ~$11; quantum cycle tied).



6. Risk Profile

  • Volatility: Extreme (~60%+ annualized)

  • Drawdown Risk: 80–95%

  • Trend Strength: Weak (Down channel)

  • Success Probability: 45–65% (Decline; reset potential)


    Total Risk Score: 60 / 100

  • Fundamental Health Check:

    • Cash & Equivalents: Adequate (Strong runway post-funding).

    • Total Debt: Low–Moderate.

    • Revenue Trend: Early growth (Low base).

    • Profitability: Losses (R&D burn).

    • Overall: Speculative pre-revenue; cash supports—high risk.



7. MCC Quant Rules Applied

  • Tactical in speculative tech.

  • Recycle private credit yields (12–15% APY quarterly) into zones.

  • Trim greed; rotate.

  • Cycle reset focus.



8. Strategic Interpretation (MCC Risk Mandate)

  • If holds $10–$13: Tactical accumulation.

  • If breaks $6–$8: Defensive; gold hedge.

  • If rebounds $21+: Trim 50%; recycle.

  • If fear persists: Full hedges; pause.



9. One-Liner

$QUBT in fear decline—MCC tactical for quantum reset asymmetry, rotates to yields.




⚠️ LEGAL DISCLAIMER (MANDATORY)

This content is quantitative research and technical analysis for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or solicitation to trade. Investing in securities involves risk, including potential loss of capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.

 
 
 

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