MCC Quant Research SLV

Asset: iShares Silver Trust (SLV)

Timeframe: Weekly (Primary) / Daily (Tactical)

Vehicle Role: Defensive Commodity / Inflation Hedge

Fund Mandate: Core Hedge Engine (Non-Correlated Risk Off / Risk Transition Asset)

Issue: December 30, 2025

1. Market Regime & Quant Score

• Market Regime: Bullish Expansion → Short-Term Overextension

• Primary Trend: Strong Uptrend (Higher Highs / Higher Lows intact)

  
  

  Total Quant Regime Score: 72 / 100

• Fear / Greed State: Short-Term Greed, Medium-Term Structural Strength

• RSI (Weekly): ~85 (Overbought; pullback risk elevated)

  
  

  Interpretation: Silver has entered a momentum-driven breakout phase after a multi-year base. However, price is extended far above trend support and prior accumulation zones. Probability favors pullback → continuation, not immediate chase.

2. MCC Portfolio Context

• Engine Classification: Core Hedge / Inflation Protection

• Portfolio Role:

  • Hedge against currency debasement & geopolitical risk

  • Counter-cyclical ballast to equities & crypto

• Correlation Behavior:

  • Low to equities in stress

  • Positive convexity during inflationary regimes

• Rotation Logic:

  • Accumulate during corrective pullbacks

  • Trim into parabolic extensions

3. BUY SCENARIO — Structured Accumulation (No Chasing)

Primary Buy Zones (from chart structure)

Zone	Price Range	Technical Confluence	Allocation Bias
Buy Zone 1	$53–$55	Broken resistance → support, trendline retest	Core
Buy Zone 2	$44–$46	Rising channel base, Fib 38.2%	Aggressive add
Extreme Defense	$36–$38	Macro trend support, Fib 23.6%	Crisis add only

Acquisition Quality Rating: 80 / 100 (High-quality hedge asset)

4. SELL / RISK MANAGEMENT SCENARIO

Sell / Trim Zones

Zone	Price Range	Action
Sell Zone 1	$71–$73	Tactical trim (overextension)
Sell Zone 2	$84–$90	Heavy trim / rebalance
Extension Target	$99+	Major cycle exhaustion

Purpose:

• Harvest gains

• Rebalance into private credit or equities on a pullback

5. ROI BY LEVEL (MANDATORY)

ROI Assumptions

• Reference Current Price: ~$69

Upside ROI (from Buy Zones)

Entry Zone	Target $71	Target $85	Target $99
$54	+31%	+57%	+83%
$45	+58%	+89%	+120%
$37	+92%	+130%	+168%

Downside Risk (from $54 entry)

Level	Drawdown
$45	-17%
$37	-31%

Risk-Reward Profile: Asymmetric, favorable only if entered on a pullback, not a breakout.

6. Cycle-Based Return Outlook

Market Cycle	Target Range	Estimated ROI
Consolidation	$55–$65	-5% to +20%
Inflation Expansion	$71–$85	+30% to +60%
Commodity Super-Cycle	$99–$120	+80% to +130%

7. Risk Profile

• Volatility: Medium–High

• Drawdown Risk: 25–40% during sharp corrections

• Trend Strength: Very Strong (Primary)

  
  

  Success Probability: 70–80% (Trend continuation after pullback)

  Total Risk Score: 35 / 100 (Low relative to equities)

8. MCC Quant Rules Applied

• No chasing vertical candles

• Buy only at the structural support

• Trim greed, recycle capital

• Maintain hedge exposure during equity risk

9. Strategic Interpretation (MCC Risk Mandate)

• Above $70: No new buys; trim strength to DCA

• Pullback to $53–$55: Core accumulation zone

• Break below $44: Reduce size; reassess macro

• Break above $85: Systematic profit realization

10. One-Line Institutional Summary

#SLV remains a high-conviction hedge asset with a strong trend, but patience is required. #MCC waits for pullback to deploy, trims into strength, and preserves asymmetry.

⚠️ LEGAL DISCLAIMER (MANDATORY)

This content is quantitative research and technical analysis for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or solicitation to trade. Investing in securities involves risk, including potential loss of capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.