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MCC Quant Research #SMCI

  • Dec 30, 2025
  • 3 min read

Asset: Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ: SMCI)

Timeframe: Monthly (Primary), Weekly (Confirmation)

Vehicle Role: High-Beta AI / Infrastructure Equity

Fund Mandate: Equities Engine — Tactical Growth Satellite


Issue: December 30, 2025



1. Market Regime & Quant Score

Market Regime:➡ Primary Bull Structure → Late-Cycle Correction / Distribution Reset


Weighted Quant Components (Monthly):

  • Long-term MA Structure (200M rising): 74%

  • Trend Integrity (higher-lows intact): 70%

  • Distribution Signal (post-parabolic unwind): 65%

  • Momentum (RSI ~45, cooling from overbought): 62%

  • Volume Behavior (distribution → contraction): 68%

  • Volatility Normalization (post blow-off): 66%

RSI Offset: -5% (neutral-to-slightly oversold)


➡ Total Quant Regime Score: 72 / 100


Fear / Greed Quant State:➡ Controlled Fear (post-euphoria AI unwind; no panic)


Interpretation: SMCI has completed a greed-phase blow-off followed by an aggressive mean-reversion. This is not a secular trend failure. Price is compressing into a long-term rising structure, consistent with mid-cycle contraction (Ibn Khaldun) and Graham re-entry zones inside a dominant AI infrastructure trend.



2. MCC Portfolio Context

  • Engine Role: High-conviction AI infrastructure satellite

  • Volatility Profile: Very High (60–80% drawdowns historically)

  • Rotation Logic:

    • Accumulate during fear resets

    • Trim aggressively into strength

  • Cross-Engine Interaction:

    • Profits rotate to private credit + gold

    • AI beta complements crypto volatility cycles



3. BUY SCENARIO — Long-Only Accumulation (No Leverage)


Buy Zones (Structural)

Primary Buy Zone (High-Probability):

  • $22–$26

  • Confluence:

    • 38.2–50% Fib retrace

    • Rising long-term trendline

    • Prior institutional demand


Secondary Buy Zone (Deep Value / Panic):

  • $15–$18

  • Confluence:

    • 61.8% Fib

    • Macro trend support

    • Historical volatility compression


Acquisition Quality Rating: 75 / 100 (High-Beta, High Asymmetry)



4. SELL / RISK-OFF SCENARIO (Trim-Only)


Sell Zones

Trim Zone 1 (Mean Reversion):

  • $42–$55


Trim Zone 2 (Distribution):

  • $95–$125


Extension / Cycle Peak Zone:

  • $180–$200 (Fib 161.8% + trend projection)


Capital Rotation:

  • Private Credit (12–15% APY)

  • Gold / Treasury hedge

  • Cash reserve for next AI reset



5. ROI BY LEVEL (MANDATORY)

Assuming average entry = $24


ROI Matrix

Scenario

Target Price

ROI

Conservative Bounce

$42

+75%

Base Case Reversion

$55

+129%

Bull Continuation

$95

+296%

Late-Cycle Expansion

$125

+421%

Full AI Cycle Extension

$180

+650%

Extreme Mania (Tail)

$200

+733%

Downside to Secondary Zone ($16): -33%Risk-Reward skew remains strongly asymmetric.


6. Cycle-Based Return Bands

Cycle State

Price Range

Expected ROI

Bear / Chop

$18–$30

-25% → +25%

Base AI Recovery

$42–$65

+75% → +170%

Bull Expansion

$95–$125

+300% → +420%

Late-Cycle Mania

$180–$200

+650% → +730%



7. Risk Profile

  • Volatility: Very High

  • Max Drawdown Risk: 65–80% (historical)

  • Trend Strength: Moderating, not broken


    Success Probability: 60–75% (cycle-dependent)

    Total Risk Score: 68 / 100


Fundamental Overlay (High-Level):

  • Revenue Growth: Strong (AI server demand)

  • Margins: Cyclical but improving

  • Balance Sheet: Acceptable for growth phase

  • Valuation: Reset from extreme → reasonable growth multiple



8. MCC Quant Rules Applied

  • No leverage in high-beta equities

  • Size 1–3% AUM per tranche

  • Accumulate only inside fear compression

  • Trim mechanically for strength

  • Recycle profits into yield engines



9. Strategic Interpretation (MCC Risk Mandate)

  • Above $26: Hold/add selectively

  • Below $22: Defensive accumulation

  • Break below $18: Pause adds, hedge

  • Above $55: Trim 30–50%

  • Above $95: Aggressive de-risk



10. One-Liner

#SMCI is a post-mania AI reset, high-beta, high-asymmetry, institutional-accumulation favored inside $22–$26, with multi-cycle upside into $95–$180.




⚠️ LEGAL DISCLAIMER (MANDATORY)

This content is quantitative research and technical analysis for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or solicitation to trade. Investing in securities involves risk, including potential loss of capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.

 
 
 

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