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MCC Quant Research #SOUN

  • Dec 30, 2025
  • 3 min read

Asset: SoundHound AI, Inc. (NASDAQ: SOUN)

Timeframe: Weekly (HTF bias; LTF ignored for signal quality)

Vehicle Role: Speculative AI / Voice Infrastructure

Fund Mandate: Equities Engine — Asymmetric Satellite


Issue: December 30, 2025



1. Market Regime & Quant Score

Market Regime:➡ Primary Bull Structure → Mid-Cycle Correction (Fear Compression)


Quant Breakdown (Weekly, weighted):

  • MA Structure (40W/200W): 71% (price pulling back toward rising long-term support)

  • Trend Integrity (Higher Lows): 68% (trend intact, but momentum broken)

  • Momentum (RSI / MACD): 62% (RSI ~42, bearish momentum decelerating)

  • Volume / Distribution: 65% (distribution near $20–25, now contracting)

  • Volatility Profile: High (speculative AI beta)

  • RSI Offset Adjustment: -5% (neutral-to-oversold, not extreme panic)


Total Quant Regime Score: 69 / 100

Fear / Greed Quant State:➡ Controlled Fear (post-distribution unwind, no capitulation)


Interpretation: SOUN completed a greed-phase expansion into the $22–25 zone and is now retracing into structural demand. This is not a trend failure. It is a classic mid-cycle reset consistent with AI-theme volatility and Graham-style re-entry zones.



2. MCC Portfolio Context

  • Role inside MCC Engines: Tactical AI satellite; high beta, non-core.

  • Volatility Behavior: Extreme (50–70% swings common).

  • Rotation Logic: Enter on fear → trim on greed → rotate gains into private credit/gold.

  • Correlation: High correlation to AI sentiment (NVDA/SMCI/SOUN cohort).



3. BUY SCENARIO — Long-Only Accumulation


Primary Buy Zone (High Probability):

  • $9.50 – $10.50

  • Confluence: 38.2% Fib + rising trendline + prior demand

  • RSI: Neutral-oversold

  • Acquisition Quality: 72 / 100


Secondary Buy Zone (Asymmetric / Deep Fear):

  • $6.40 – $7.00

  • Confluence: 23.6% Fib + long-term trend + panic tail risk

  • Acquisition Quality: 78 / 100 (higher asymmetry, lower probability fill)


Example Allocation ($1,000 Notional):

  • $650 → Primary Zone ($9.50–10.50)

  • $350 → Secondary Zone ($6.40–7.00)



4. SELL / RISK-OFF SCENARIO (NO SHORTS)


Sell / Trim Zones:

  • Trim 1: $12.50–$14.00 (trend reclaim)

  • Trim 2: $19.00–$22.00 (prior distribution zone)

  • De-Risk / Exit: $38–$40 (cycle extension / MCC target)


Capital Rotation: Trimmed gains rotate into:

  • Private Credit (10–15% APY compounding)

  • Gold / defensive hedges

  • Cash buffer for next cycle reset



5. ROI BY LEVEL (MANDATORY)


ROI Calculations


(Using $10.00 blended entry for Primary Zone and $6.70 for Secondary Zone)

From Primary Entry ($10.00)

Target

Price

ROI

Relief Bounce

$12.50

+25%

Prior High Test

$19.50

+95%

Sell Zone High

$22.00

+120%

MCC Price Target

$40.00

+300%

From Secondary Entry ($6.70)

Target

Price

ROI

Mean Reversion

$10.50

+57%

Prior High Test

$19.50

+191%

Sell Zone High

$22.00

+228%

MCC Price Target

$40.00

+497%

➡ Asymmetry Profile: Downside risk capped to defined zones; upside convex if AI cycle resumes.



6. Cycle-Based Outcome Bands

Cycle State

Target Range

Est. ROI (from ~$10)

Bear / Chop

$7–$12

-30% to +20%

Base Case

$18–$25

+80% to +150%

Bull Expansion

$38–$45

+280% to +350%



7. Risk Profile

  • Volatility: Very High

  • Drawdown Risk: 60–80%

  • Trend Strength: Moderately Weak (correction phase)


    Success Probability: 58–68% (conditional on holding $9.50)

    Total Risk Score: 62 / 100


Fundamental Snapshot (High-Level):

  • Revenue: Early growth, still small base

  • Profitability: Loss-making (R&D heavy)

  • Balance Sheet: Adequate liquidity

  • Classification: Speculative growth / option-like equity



8. MCC Quant Rules Applied

  • Long-only in speculative tech

  • Enter only inside fear compression

  • No leverage

  • Trim strength, never chase

  • Recycle profits into yield engines

  • Hard respect for invalidation zones



9. Strategic Interpretation (MCC Risk Mandate)

  • Above $10.50: Tactical accumulation valid

  • Below $9.00: Reduce exposure; wait for $6–7

  • Above $14: Trim 25–40%

  • Above $22: Trim the majority

  • Above $38: Full cycle exit



10. One-Line Summary

#SOUN is in a controlled fear reset within a secular AI trend. MCC treats it as a high-beta satellite with a defined downside and 3-5× upside optionality if the AI cycle resumes.



⚠️ LEGAL DISCLAIMER (MANDATORY)

This content is quantitative research and technical analysis for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or solicitation to trade. Investing in securities involves risk, including potential loss of capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.

 
 
 

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