MCC Quant Research #STRF

Asset: Strategy Inc. – 10.00% Series A Perpetual Strife Preferred Stock

Ticker: STRF

Timeframe: Weekly

Vehicle Role: Yield Instrument / Hybrid Equity–Credit

Fund Mandate: Private Credit Engine (Income Core + Volatility Hedge)

Issue: December 27, 2025

1. Market Regime & Quant Score

Market Regime: Corrective / Compression Phase

Total Quant Regime Score: 68 / 100

Fear / Greed Quant State:

• Mild Fear → Neutral

• Price compressing below descending resistance

• Yield-driven buyers defending lower structure

Interpretation: STRF is not a momentum asset. It is behaving as expected for a high-coupon perpetual preferred price mean-reverting around yield equilibrium. Current compression reflects rate sensitivity and equity volatility, not credit stress.

2. MCC Portfolio Context

• Engine Role: Private Credit Engine (Primary Yield Core)

• Function:

  • Stable income generation

  • Cash-flow anchor during crypto/equity volatility

• Volatility Behavior: Low–Medium (price fluctuates, income stable)

• Rotation Logic:

  • Hold long-term for yield

  • Reinvest distributions into risk assets during drawdowns

• Interaction with Other Engines:

  • Funds crypto and equity accumulation via yield drip

  • Acts as ballast against leveraged crypto exposure

3. BUY SCENARIO — Long-Only Accumulation

(Yield-first, valuation-second)

Valuation Framework (Income-Oriented)

Level	Price Zone	Meaning
Fair Value	$100–$110	Yield equilibrium
Intrinsic Value	$84–$88	High-yield, favorable R/R
Deep Discount	$74–$78	Maximum yield asymmetry

Buy Zones (from chart):

• Primary: ~$84

• Secondary: ~$75

Acquisition Quality Rating: 90 / 100

(Driven by yield durability, not price appreciation)

Example Allocation ($1,000 notional):

• $600 at $84

• $400 at $75

4. SELL / RISK-OFF SCENARIO (NO SHORTS)

Sell / Trim Zones:

• $122–$136 (yield compression / capital appreciation)

Purpose:

• Reduce duration risk

• Lock capital gains (not yield-driven)

Capital Destination:

• Rotate gains into:

  • Crypto fear zones

  • Equities drawdowns

  • Gold during systemic stress

5. Cycle-Based ROI Bands

Scenario	Price Range	Total Return Driver
Bear / Rates Up	$75–$95	Yield dominates
Base Case	$100–$110	Yield + mild appreciation
Bull / Risk-On	$120–$136	Yield + capital gains

Primary return = income, not price.

6. Risk Profile

• Volatility: Low–Medium

• Drawdown Risk: 20–30% price, income intact

• Trend Strength: Neutral / Range-bound

  
  

  Success Probability: 80–90%

  • Income reliability outweighs price risk

  
  

  Total Risk Score: 91 / 100

Fundamental Health Check (Issuer-Level View)

• Coupon: 10.00% perpetual

• Coverage: Supported by Strategy Inc. capital structure

• Risk Factor: Interest-rate sensitivity, not solvency

• Overall: Income-stable, price-variable—ideal MCC yield core

7. MCC Quant Rules Applied

• Classified as Private Credit Engine

• Yield drip reinvested quarterly

• No leverage, no trading bias

• Held through cycles unless credit risk changes

• Used to fund higher-volatility engines

8. Strategic Interpretation (MCC Risk Mandate)

• If price ≥ $100: Hold, collect yield

• If price ~$84: Add aggressively

• If price ~$75: Max allocation zone

• If price ≥ $125: Trim 25–40%, rotate gains

9. One-Liner

STRF provides MCC with durable 10% yield—accumulated on rate-driven fear and used to fund asymmetric risk elsewhere.

#STRF #ManhattanCrypto #zaidkhan

⚠️ LEGAL DISCLAIMER (MANDATORY)

This content is quantitative research and technical analysis for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or solicitation to trade. Investing in securities involves risk, including potential loss of capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.