MCC Quant Research TQQQ

Asset: ProShares UltraPro QQQ (NASDAQ: TQQQ)

Timeframe: Monthly

Vehicle Classification: Tactical Leveraged Equity (3× Nasdaq-100)

Portfolio Engine: Equities Alpha Engine (High Convexity Sleeve)

Issue: December 31, 2025

1. Market Regime & Quant Score

Market Regime: Late-Cycle Correction → Structural Pullback

Primary Structure: Rising long-term channel; price rejected at upper band

Trend State: Short-term bearish, long-term bullish (secular uptrend intact)

Quant Inputs (Weighted):

• Price vs Long-Term Trend: Neutral-Bearish

• Momentum (RSI ~65 → rolling over): Bearish short-term

• Volatility Regime: Extreme (levered decay risk elevated)

• Cycle Position: Post-Greed → Mean Reversion Phase

Total Quant Regime Score: 55 / 100

Interpretation: This is not a breakout environment. This is a tactical reset window inside a secular Nasdaq uptrend. Leverage requires precision entries.

2. Structural Technical Analysis (What the Chart Is Saying)

• Upper Resistance / Sell Zone: ~$60–61

  • Confluence of prior highs + channel resistance

• Mid-Channel Fair Value: ~$37

  • Long-term VWAP / Fib 61.8% / structural balance

• Lower Channel / Max Convexity Zone: ~$14–20

  • Historical drawdown troughs during prior Nasdaq resets

The chart confirms distribution near resistance, followed by a controlled rollover, not panic, but cooling.

3. MCC Buy Zones (Institutional Accumulation Framework)

Buy Zone 1 — Tactical Reset (Primary)

Price Range: $26 – $37Structure: Channel support + Fib 61.8%

Behavioral State: Fear replacing complacency

Role: Core tactical accumulation

Expected Holding Period: 6–18 months

Convexity: High

Probability: Moderate-High

Buy Zone 2 — Deep Cycle Reset (Secondary)

Price Range: $14 – $20 Structure: Lower channel + historical leverage washouts

Behavioral State: Capitulation/despair

Role: High-convexity asymmetric entry

Expected Holding Period: 1–3 years

Convexity: Extreme

Probability: Lower frequency, highest payoff

4. MCC Sell Zones & De-Risking Levels

Sell Zone 1 — Tactical Trim

Price Range: $97 – $111Action: Trim 40–60%

Purpose: Lock convexity gains, recycle capital

Sell Zone 2 — Greed Exhaustion

Price Range: $237+Action: Exit majority

Purpose: Avoid leverage decay during late-cycle euphoria

5. ROI BY LEVEL (Explicit, As Requested)

Assuming the current reference price ≈ of $53.50

Upside ROI Scenarios

Entry Zone	Exit Target	Approx ROI
$37	$97	+162%
$37	$111	+200%
$26	$97	+273%
$26	$111	+327%
$20	$237	+1,085%
$14	$237	+1,593%

Downside Risk (From Current Price)

Move	Drawdown
$53 → $37	-31%
$53 → $26	-51%
$53 → $14	-74%

This asymmetry is only acceptable when sized correctly.

6. Risk Profile (Institutional View)

• Volatility: Extreme

• Leverage Decay Risk: High (sideways markets)

• Max Historical Drawdowns: 80–95%

• Liquidity: Excellent

• ETF Structural Risk: No debt; daily rebalance risk only

Total Risk Score: 65 / 100

(High risk, high convexity; unsuitable as a core holding.)

7. MCC Portfolio Rules Applied

• Position size capped at 1–3% AUM per tranche

• No averaging above resistance

• Accumulate only inside fear zones

• Trim aggressively into strength

• Recycle profits into:

  • Private Credit (10–15% yield)

  • Gold / Treasury hedges

8. Strategic Interpretation (MCC Risk Mandate)

• Above $60 → No buys

• $37–26 → Tactical accumulation allowed

• Below $20 → High-convexity opportunity, reduced size

• Above $97 → Mandatory trim

This is a weapon, not a foundation.

9. One-Line Thesis

#TQQQ is transitioning from greed to reset. #MCC waits for fear to deploy leverage, then exits aggressively into strength.

⚠️ Legal Disclaimer: This content is quantitative research and technical analysis for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or solicitation. Leveraged ETFs involve substantial risk, including potential total loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct independent research and consult a licensed professional.