Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI)

Manhattan Crypto Capital RGTI Investment Mandate & Quantitative R&D

Quantum Infrastructure & Institutional Convexity Framework

Quantitative Research Report | Manhattan Crypto Capital

Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Quantitative Analysis, Quantum Computing Price Targets & Institutional Risk Framework by Manhattan Crypto Capital

Issue Date: May 18, 2026

Prepared By: Manhattan Crypto Capital Quantitative R&D Division

Time Horizon: 12–36 Months

Portfolio Classification: Quantum Infrastructure Convexity Allocation

Volatility Classification: Extremely High

Executive Summary

Rigetti Computing currently represents one of the stronger pure-play quantum infrastructure opportunities within the Manhattan Crypto Capital innovation framework.

The current chart structure reflects:

• post-speculative correction stabilization

• volatility compression

• improving support integrity

• early-stage accumulation behavior

• declining downside momentum

Within the MCC framework, RGTI is classified as:

• a strategic quantum infrastructure allocation

• a tactical convexity position

• an emerging next-generation compute infrastructure vehicle

The company’s positioning within:

• superconducting quantum systems

• quantum cloud infrastructure

• quantum hardware development

• quantum algorithm architecture

creates substantial asymmetric upside potential if:

• enterprise quantum adoption accelerates

• government quantum spending expands

• institutional capital rotates back into frontier compute infrastructure

The current statistical structure remains constructive while:

• price stabilizes above the $14 support band

• downside volatility continues compressing

• accumulation behavior improves

MCC Quantitative Scoring Framework

Quantitative Factor	Score	Weight	Weighted Score
Trend Structure Quality	77	20%	15.4
Momentum Persistence	74	15%	11.1
Volatility Compression Setup	91	15%	13.7
Support Integrity	86	10%	8.6
Risk / Reward Asymmetry	98	15%	14.7
Volume & Participation	79	10%	7.9
Macro / Sector Strength	89	10%	8.9
Institutional Conviction	63	5%	3.1

Final MCC Quantitative Score

83.4 / 100

MCC Classification

Institutional High-Conviction Convexity Opportunity

MCC Statistical Structure Analysis

Metric	Score
Breakout Probability	81/100
Convexity Potential	99/100
Downside Fragility	82/100
Momentum Continuation Probability	76/100
Volatility Expansion Potential	95/100
Institutional Support Strength	66/100

MCC Market Regime Classification

Current Market Regime

Quantum Infrastructure Reaccumulation & Volatility Compression

The current structure reflects:

• post-euphoria consolidation

• support stabilization

• decreasing downside momentum

• improving accumulation characteristics

Historically, high-convexity quantum infrastructure assets frequently experience:

• aggressive momentum expansions

  
  

  followed by:

• prolonged volatility resets

  
  

  before:

• renewed speculative continuation phases

The current structure increasingly resembles:

• reaccumulation

  
  

  rather than:

• structural failure

Technical Structure Overview

Current Structure

RGTI currently reflects:

• volatility compression

• support retention

• improving stabilization behavior

• constructive consolidation

The recent correction from prior euphoric expansion appears statistically healthy given:

• previous parabolic acceleration

• speculative overextension

• momentum saturation

Price remains positioned near:

• primary accumulation support

  
  

  which materially improves:

• long-duration asymmetry

Key Price Levels

Level	Price	Classification
MCC Price Target	$93.31	Primary expansion target
Major Resistance	$60	Macro supply wall
Intermediate Resistance	$45	Trend breakout pivot
Tactical Buy Zone (BZ1)	$14.35	Primary accumulation
Institutional Buy Zone (BZ2)	$7.84	Secondary accumulation
Deep Value Buy Zone (BZ3)	$0.77	Convexity support
Current Price	~$16.60	Near accumulation support

Probability-Weighted Scenario Analysis

Scenario	Probability	Expected Outcome
Bear Case	25%	Retest lower support
Base Case	50%	Recovery toward $45–60
Bull Case	25%	Expansion toward $93

Expected Value & Convexity Analysis

Category	Assessment
Expected Value Profile	Exceptional
Upside Asymmetry	Extreme
Volatility Risk	Extremely High
Structural Integrity	Strong
Liquidity Stability	Moderate
Statistical Opportunity	Highly Favorable

Manhattan Crypto Capital Investment Thesis

1. Quantum Hardware Infrastructure Exposure

Rigetti provides exposure to:

• superconducting quantum computing

• quantum cloud systems

• advanced compute infrastructure

• quantum hardware architecture

• enterprise quantum development

This positions the company within:

• one of the most asymmetric long-duration innovation themes globally

2. High-Convexity Infrastructure Opportunity

The opportunity exists because:

• quantum infrastructure remains early-stage

• institutional positioning remains limited

• enterprise adoption remains nascent

• speculative expectations remain cyclical

Historically, transformational compute infrastructure platforms can experience:

• nonlinear repricing

  
  

  during:

• infrastructure adoption acceleration cycles

3. Constructive Support & Volatility Compression

The current chart structure reflects:

• improving downside exhaustion

• constructive accumulation

• declining volatility pressure

• strengthening support behavior

These conditions frequently improve:

• expected value

• volatility expansion probabilities

• breakout continuation potential

MCC Structured Accumulation Plan

Tactical Buy Zone — BZ1

$14.35 Area

Allocation: 40%

Purpose:

• initial accumulation

• support participation

• tactical positioning

Institutional Buy Zone — BZ2

$7.84 Area

Allocation: 35%

Purpose:

• stronger asymmetry

• volatility-adjusted exposure

• institutional support participation

Deep Value Buy Zone — BZ3

$0.77 Area

Allocation: 25%

Purpose:

• extreme downside volatility capture

• convexity maximization

• long-duration strategic positioning

Profit Rotation Strategy

Level	Action
$45	Trim 15–20%
$60	Rotate additional 25–35%
$93.31	Major distribution target

MCC portfolio discipline prioritizes:

• scaling into weakness

• reducing exposure into euphoric expansion

• preserving realized gains

• maintaining institutional survivability

MCC Risk Management Framework

Full De-Risk Conditions

Exposure should be materially reduced if:

• structure loses $7 support

• quantum infrastructure momentum deteriorates materially

• liquidity conditions tighten aggressively

• speculative breadth weakens materially

RGTI should be treated strictly as:

• a tactical quantum infrastructure allocation

  
  

  not:

• a defensive long-duration institutional compounder

Portfolio Role Inside Manhattan Crypto Capital

RGTI serves as:

• quantum hardware exposure

• speculative convexity participation

• emerging compute infrastructure allocation

• tactical innovation positioning

Within the MCC framework, RGTI complements:

• AI infrastructure holdings

• photonics exposure

• semiconductor infrastructure

• quantum ecosystem allocations

MCC Final Committee Ratings

Metric	Score
Quantitative Structure	83/100
Momentum Persistence	76/100
Convexity Potential	99/100
Risk-Adjusted Opportunity	87/100
Institutional Quality	63/100
Volatility Risk	94/100
Final MCC Rating	85/100

Final MCC Recommendation

Status

HIGH-CONVICTION TACTICAL ACCUMULATION

Strategy

Layered Institutional DCA with Strict Risk Controls

Primary Objective

Capture asymmetric upside from quantum infrastructure expansion and speculative technology repricing.

Secondary Objective

Maintain strategic exposure to emerging next-generation compute infrastructure under disciplined institutional risk management.

RGTI currently ranks among the stronger quantum infrastructure setups within the Manhattan Crypto Capital framework due to favorable volatility compression, strong asymmetry characteristics, improving support integrity, and long-duration quantum optionality.

CEO Commentary

Rigetti Computing Positioned as High-Convexity Quantum Infrastructure Opportunity Under Manhattan Crypto Capital Framework

“At Manhattan Crypto Capital, we focus on identifying technological infrastructure transitions before broad institutional adoption fully reprices the opportunity. Rigetti Computing currently represents one of the more compelling pure-play quantum infrastructure opportunities due to its positioning within superconducting quantum systems and next-generation compute architecture.

The current structure reflects substantial volatility compression following prior speculative expansion. From a quantitative perspective, the chart increasingly demonstrates constructive accumulation behavior, improving support stabilization, and declining downside momentum while the broader quantum infrastructure narrative continues developing globally.

Under the Manhattan Crypto Capital framework, opportunities such as RGTI are accumulated systematically through staged entries, disciplined exposure sizing, and active risk management. Our objective is not chasing speculative momentum. Our objective is positioning capital where long-duration infrastructure asymmetry materially outweighs downside expectations while preserving institutional survivability throughout volatility cycles.

We believe quantum infrastructure, quantum cloud systems, and next-generation computational architecture may become one of the defining technological shifts of the coming decade. While volatility remains extremely elevated, the long-duration convexity profile continues to justify disciplined strategic exposure under the MCC framework.”

Zaid Khan

CEO, Manhattan Crypto Capital

Managing Partner, Manhattan Global Partners

Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Quantitative Analysis, Quantum Computing Price Targets & Institutional Risk Framework by Manhattan Crypto Capital

Manhattan Crypto Capital Disclaimer

This material is provided for informational, educational, and research purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any security, digital asset, derivative, fund interest, or investment product. Any offer or solicitation may be made only through official offering documents, including applicable Confidential Private Placement Memorandums, subscription agreements, and related legal documentation, and only to qualified and eligible investors in jurisdictions where permitted by law.

Manhattan Crypto Capital and Manhattan Global Partners operate under applicable exemptions including, where relevant, SEC Regulation D Rule 506(c) and Regulation S. Investments discussed may involve substantial risk, including loss of principal, illiquidity, volatility, leverage risk, regulatory risk, and market uncertainty. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Forward-looking statements are inherently uncertain and subject to change without notice.

The content presented reflects quantitative research, market commentary, technical analysis, macroeconomic interpretation, and portfolio construction methodologies that may change based on market conditions. Nothing herein should be construed as legal, tax, accounting, or personalized investment advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult qualified professional advisors before making investment decisions.

Manhattan Crypto Capital, Manhattan Global Partners, and their affiliates may hold positions in the assets, securities, or investment vehicles discussed and may change such positions without notice. No representation or warranty is made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein.

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