AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS)

Manhattan Crypto Capital ASTS Investment Mandate & Quantitative R&D

Space-Based Cellular Infrastructure & Institutional Convexity Framework

Quantitative Research Report | Manhattan Crypto Capital

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Quantitative Analysis, Price Targets & Institutional Infrastructure Thesis by Manhattan Crypto Capital

Issue Date: May 18, 2026

Prepared By: Manhattan Crypto Capital Quantitative R&D Division

Time Horizon: 12–36 Months

Portfolio Classification: Space Infrastructure & Telecommunications Convexity Allocation

Volatility Classification: Extremely High

Executive Summary

AST SpaceMobile continues to rank among the highest-conviction asymmetric infrastructure opportunities inside the Manhattan Crypto Capital framework.

The current structure reflects:

• macro higher-low continuation

• successful trendline support retention

• institutional accumulation stabilization

• volatility compression recovery

• constructive momentum reacceleration

The chart is statistically transitioning from:

• corrective consolidation

  
  

  toward:

• potential expansion continuation

Within the MCC framework, ASTS is categorized as:

• space-based telecom infrastructure

• next-generation global connectivity exposure

• strategic asymmetric innovation allocation

• long-duration convexity opportunity

The current structure materially improved following:

• successful defense of the $62–$75 institutional support range

• recovery back above trend support

• improving relative strength behavior

MCC Quantitative Scoring Framework

Quantitative Factor	Score	Weight	Weighted Score
Macro Trend Structure	92	20%	18.4
Momentum Persistence	84	15%	12.6
Volatility Compression Setup	89	15%	13.4
Institutional Support Integrity	93	10%	9.3
Risk / Reward Asymmetry	97	15%	14.5
Relative Strength vs Growth Basket	87	10%	8.7
Liquidity & Participation	81	10%	8.1
Statistical Convexity	98	5%	4.9

Final MCC Quantitative Score

89.9 / 100

MCC Classification

ELITE HIGH-CONVEXITY INFRASTRUCTURE OPPORTUNITY

MCC Statistical Structure Analysis

Metric	Score
Breakout Probability	87/100
Long-Term Convexity Potential	99/100
Trend Continuation Probability	84/100
Institutional Accumulation Quality	91/100
Volatility Expansion Potential	96/100
Structural Integrity	90/100

MCC Market Regime Classification

Current Market Regime

Infrastructure Reaccumulation with Early Expansion Recovery

The current chart reflects:

• broad consolidation after prior momentum expansion

• support stabilization

• improving accumulation profile

• higher-low continuation structure

This structure historically aligns with:

• intermediate consolidation phases

  
  

  preceding:

• secondary expansion cycles

The market is increasingly pricing:

• long-duration infrastructure optionality

• satellite communications growth

• next-generation global broadband integration

Technical Structure Overview

Current Technical Position

ASTS remains positioned:

• above major macro support

• inside a rising structural channel

• near lower trend acceleration support

The successful defense of:

• $62.46

• $75.00

  
  

  dramatically improved:

• downside asymmetry

• continuation probabilities

• institutional participation confidence

Current structure suggests:

• accumulation behavior rather than distribution

Key Price Levels

Level	Price	Classification
MCC Price Target	$197.12	Long-term expansion target
Intermediate Resistance	$130	Macro breakout level
Trend Expansion Zone	$160	Institutional momentum zone
Tactical Buy Zone (BZ1)	$86.46	Active support
Institutional Buy Zone (BZ2)	$75.00	Primary accumulation
Deep Value Buy Zone (BZ3)	$62.46	Strategic support
Current Price	~$86.61	Trend stabilization

Probability-Weighted Scenario Analysis

Scenario	Probability	Expected Outcome
Bear Case	18%	Retest lower support
Base Case	51%	Recovery toward $130
Bull Case	31%	Expansion toward $197

Expected Value & Convexity Analysis

Category	Assessment
Expected Value Profile	Exceptional
Long-Term Asymmetry	Extreme
Infrastructure Optionality	Elite
Institutional Quality	Strong
Liquidity Stability	Moderate
Strategic Convexity	Exceptional

Manhattan Crypto Capital Investment Thesis

1. Space-Based Cellular Infrastructure Opportunity

ASTS represents:

• direct exposure to satellite-to-mobile infrastructure

• next-generation telecom disruption

• space-based broadband integration

• global communications infrastructure expansion

The company’s positioning creates:

• long-duration asymmetric upside

  
  

  if execution continues progressing successfully

2. Institutional Infrastructure Narrative

Global connectivity demand continues accelerating through:

• AI-driven bandwidth demand

• emerging market expansion

• defense and communications infrastructure

• direct-to-device integration

The market increasingly values:

• scalable infrastructure platforms

  
  

  rather than:

• short-duration speculative narratives

3. Quantitative Reaccumulation Structure

The current structure reflects:

• declining downside volatility

• higher-low stabilization

• constructive trendline recovery

• improving support retention

Historically, these conditions frequently precede:

• secondary momentum expansion phases

MCC Structured Accumulation Plan

Tactical Buy Zone — BZ1

$86.46 Area

Allocation: 35%

Purpose:

• trend continuation participation

• support stabilization exposure

• tactical momentum entry

Institutional Buy Zone — BZ2

$75.00 Area

Allocation: 40%

Purpose:

• primary institutional accumulation

• favorable asymmetry positioning

• volatility-adjusted scaling

Deep Value Buy Zone — BZ3

$62.46 Area

Allocation: 25%

Purpose:

• macro support accumulation

• convexity maximization

• panic volatility positioning

Profit Rotation Strategy

Level	Action
$130	Reduce 15–20%
$160	Rotate additional 25–35%
$197	Major institutional distribution zone

The MCC framework prioritizes:

• scaling into weakness

• monetizing volatility expansion

• preserving institutional survivability

• maintaining asymmetry discipline

MCC Risk Management Framework

Full De-Risk Conditions

Risk exposure should be materially reduced if:

• structure loses $62 support

• macro growth regime deteriorates

• infrastructure momentum weakens materially

• financing or execution risks materially increase

ASTS should be treated as:

• a high-volatility infrastructure convexity position

  
  

  not:

• a defensive allocation

Portfolio Role Inside Manhattan Crypto Capital

ASTS functions as:

• telecommunications infrastructure exposure

• space technology convexity

• next-generation connectivity allocation

• asymmetric innovation positioning

Within the MCC framework, ASTS complements:

• AI infrastructure holdings

• quantum exposure

• communications systems

• advanced compute and network infrastructure

MCC Final Committee Ratings

Metric	Score
Quantitative Structure	90/100
Convexity Potential	99/100
Momentum Persistence	84/100
Risk-Adjusted Opportunity	91/100
Institutional Quality	86/100
Long-Term Optionality	98/100
Final MCC Rating	91/100

Final MCC Recommendation

Status

ELITE HIGH-CONVICTION INFRASTRUCTURE ACCUMULATION

Strategy

Layered Institutional DCA with Volatility-Adjusted Scaling

Primary Objective

Capture asymmetric upside from next-generation global telecommunications infrastructure expansion.

Secondary Objective

Maintain exposure to one of the highest-convexity infrastructure opportunities within the emerging space communications economy.

ASTS currently ranks among the strongest long-duration asymmetric infrastructure setups inside the Manhattan Crypto Capital framework due to:

• macro trend integrity

• successful support retention

• improving accumulation behavior

• institutional-quality convexity profile

CEO Commentary

AST SpaceMobile Represents One of the Most Asymmetric Infrastructure Opportunities in Global Markets

“At Manhattan Crypto Capital, we continuously search for opportunities where quantitative structure, technological disruption, and long-duration infrastructure adoption converge into asymmetric return potential. AST SpaceMobile currently represents one of the clearest examples of that framework in action.

The company operates at the intersection of telecommunications infrastructure, satellite communications, and global connectivity expansion. The market opportunity is not simply speculative growth. It is the potential restructuring of how mobile connectivity is delivered globally over the coming decade.

From a quantitative perspective, the current chart reflects improving structural integrity following a broad corrective consolidation phase. Support stabilization, trendline recovery, and volatility compression dynamics continue improving the expected value profile while maintaining exceptional convexity potential.

At Manhattan Crypto Capital, we view ASTS as a long-duration infrastructure allocation rather than a short-term speculative trade. Positions are accumulated strategically through layered entries, disciplined risk management, and institutional exposure sizing. Our focus remains preserving survivability while maintaining exposure to opportunities capable of nonlinear expansion as global infrastructure adoption accelerates.

We believe the next generation of global communications infrastructure may ultimately become one of the defining technological transformations of this cycle.”

Zaid Khan

CEO, Manhattan Crypto Capital

Managing Partner, Manhattan Global Partners

Manhattan Crypto Capital Disclaimer

This material is provided for informational, educational, and research purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any security, digital asset, derivative, fund interest, or investment product. Any offer or solicitation may be made only through official offering documents, including applicable Confidential Private Placement Memorandums, subscription agreements, and related legal documentation, and only to qualified and eligible investors in jurisdictions where permitted by law.

Manhattan Crypto Capital and Manhattan Global Partners operate under applicable exemptions including, where relevant, SEC Regulation D Rule 506(c) and Regulation S. Investments discussed may involve substantial risk, including loss of principal, illiquidity, volatility, leverage risk, regulatory risk, and market uncertainty. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Forward-looking statements are inherently uncertain and subject to change without notice.

The content presented reflects quantitative research, market commentary, technical analysis, macroeconomic interpretation, and portfolio construction methodologies that may change based on market conditions. Nothing herein should be construed as legal, tax, accounting, or personalized investment advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult qualified professional advisors before making investment decisions.

Manhattan Crypto Capital, Manhattan Global Partners, and their affiliates may hold positions in the assets, securities, or investment vehicles discussed and may change such positions without notice. No representation or warranty is made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein.

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