POET Technologies (NASDAQ: POET)

Manhattan Crypto Capital POET Investment Mandate & Quantitative R&D

AI Optical Infrastructure & Photonics Convexity Framework

Quantitative Research Report | Manhattan Crypto Capital

Issue Date: May 18, 2026

Prepared By: Manhattan Crypto Capital Quantitative R&D Division

Time Horizon: 6–24 Months

Portfolio Classification: Emerging AI Infrastructure Convexity Allocation

Volatility Classification: Extremely High

Executive Summary

POET Technologies currently represents one of the more compelling asymmetric AI photonics infrastructure opportunities within the Manhattan Crypto Capital innovation framework.

The current chart structure reflects:

• aggressive momentum expansion

• constructive consolidation behavior

• institutional accumulation stabilization

• healthy pullback normalization

• improving support integrity

Within the MCC framework, POET is classified as:

• an AI infrastructure photonics allocation

• a tactical high-convexity semiconductor position

• an emerging optical interconnect infrastructure vehicle

The company’s positioning within:

• AI optical networking

• photonics infrastructure

• high-speed data transfer

• AI compute interconnect systems

creates substantial long-duration optionality if:

• AI infrastructure spending continues accelerating

• optical networking demand expands materially

• hyperscaler deployment increases

The current statistical structure remains constructive while:

• price stabilizes above the $13 support region

• higher support bands remain intact

• volatility compression continues improving

MCC Quantitative Scoring Framework

Quantitative Factor	Score	Weight	Weighted Score
Trend Structure Quality	86	20%	17.2
Momentum Persistence	88	15%	13.2
Volatility Compression Setup	81	15%	12.1
Support Integrity	84	10%	8.4
Risk / Reward Asymmetry	96	15%	14.4
Volume & Participation	82	10%	8.2
Macro / Sector Strength	91	10%	9.1
Institutional Conviction	72	5%	3.6

Final MCC Quantitative Score

86.2 / 100

MCC Classification

Institutional High Conviction

MCC Statistical Structure Analysis

Metric	Score
Breakout Probability	84/100
Convexity Potential	98/100
Downside Fragility	76/100
Momentum Continuation Probability	87/100
Volatility Expansion Potential	93/100
Institutional Support Strength	74/100

MCC Market Regime Classification

Current Market Regime

AI Photonics Infrastructure Expansion

The current structure reflects:

• strong AI infrastructure participation

• healthy post-expansion consolidation

• momentum normalization

• institutional support stabilization

The broader AI infrastructure market continues favoring:

• optical interconnect systems

• AI compute efficiency

• data center networking acceleration

The current pullback increasingly resembles:

• constructive reaccumulation

  
  

  rather than:

• structural breakdown

Technical Structure Overview

Current Structure

POET currently reflects:

• strong momentum persistence

• controlled downside volatility

• higher support stabilization

• constructive consolidation behavior

The recent correction appears statistically healthy after:

• rapid expansion phases

• speculative momentum acceleration

• volatility expansion

Historically, emerging AI infrastructure leaders frequently:

• consolidate aggressively

  
  

  before:

• renewed momentum continuation phases

Key Price Levels

Level	Price	Classification
MCC Price Target	$29.72	Primary expansion target
Macro Resistance	$21	Major supply wall
Mid Resistance	$17.7	Trend pivot
Tactical Buy Zone (BZ1)	$13.52	Primary accumulation
Institutional Buy Zone (BZ2)	$11.89	Secondary accumulation
Deep Value Buy Zone (BZ3)	$9.70	Strategic support
Capitulation Support	$6.45	Extreme downside support
Current Price	~$14.14	Near primary support

Probability-Weighted Scenario Analysis

Scenario	Probability	Expected Outcome
Bear Case	20%	Retest lower support
Base Case	50%	Recovery toward $21
Bull Case	30%	Expansion toward $29.72

Expected Value & Convexity Analysis

Category	Assessment
Expected Value Profile	Exceptional
Upside Asymmetry	Extreme
Volatility Risk	Extremely High
Structural Integrity	Strong
Liquidity Stability	Moderate
Statistical Opportunity	Highly Favorable

Manhattan Crypto Capital Investment Thesis

1. AI Optical Infrastructure Exposure

POET provides exposure to:

• AI photonics systems

• optical interconnect infrastructure

• high-speed AI networking

• semiconductor optical integration

• next-generation compute efficiency infrastructure

This positions the company within:

• one of the fastest-growing segments

  
  

  of:

• AI infrastructure expansion

2. High-Convexity AI Infrastructure Framework

The opportunity exists because:

• AI compute demand continues accelerating

• optical bandwidth requirements are expanding

• hyperscale networking bottlenecks remain critical

• photonics adoption continues increasing

The market increasingly rewards:

• infrastructure enablers

  
  

  rather than:

• only AI application-layer companies

3. Constructive Momentum & Support Stabilization

The current structure reflects:

• healthy volatility reset

• strong support stabilization

• improving accumulation behavior

• constructive consolidation

These conditions frequently precede:

• continuation breakouts

• institutional momentum rotation

• renewed speculative expansion

MCC Structured Accumulation Plan

Tactical Buy Zone — BZ1

$13.52 Area

Allocation: 40%

Purpose:

• initial accumulation

• trend continuation positioning

• support participation

Institutional Buy Zone — BZ2

$11.89 Area

Allocation: 35%

Purpose:

• stronger asymmetry

• volatility-adjusted accumulation

• institutional support participation

Deep Value Buy Zone — BZ3

$9.70 Area

Allocation: 25%

Purpose:

• panic volatility capture

• convexity maximization

• long-duration positioning

Profit Rotation Strategy

Level	Action
$17.7	Trim 15–20%
$21	Rotate additional 25–35%
$29.72	Major distribution target

MCC portfolio discipline prioritizes:

• scaling into weakness

• rotating into euphoric expansion

• preserving realized gains

• maintaining institutional survivability

MCC Risk Management Framework

Full De-Risk Conditions

Exposure should be materially reduced if:

• structure loses $9.70 support

• AI infrastructure breadth deteriorates materially

• optical networking momentum weakens materially

• liquidity conditions tighten aggressively

POET should be treated as:

• a tactical high-convexity AI infrastructure allocation

  
  

  not:

• a defensive long-duration compounder

Portfolio Role Inside Manhattan Crypto Capital

POET serves as:

• AI optical infrastructure exposure

• semiconductor photonics participation

• emerging compute infrastructure allocation

• tactical AI convexity positioning

Within the MCC framework, POET complements:

• semiconductor exposure

• AI compute infrastructure holdings

• networking infrastructure positions

• quantum and photonics allocations

MCC Final Committee Ratings

Metric	Score
Quantitative Structure	86/100
Momentum Persistence	87/100
Convexity Potential	98/100
Risk-Adjusted Opportunity	88/100
Institutional Quality	72/100
Volatility Risk	92/100
Final MCC Rating	87/100

Final MCC Recommendation

Status

HIGH-CONVICTION TACTICAL ACCUMULATION

Strategy

Layered Institutional DCA with Active Risk Controls

Primary Objective

Capture upside from AI optical infrastructure and photonics expansion.

Secondary Objective

Maintain asymmetric exposure to emerging AI compute infrastructure under disciplined institutional risk management.

POET currently ranks among the stronger emerging AI photonics opportunities within the Manhattan Crypto Capital framework due to strong asymmetry, constructive momentum behavior, favorable AI infrastructure tailwinds, and improving support stabilization.

CEO Commentary

POET Technologies Positioned as Emerging AI Photonics Infrastructure Opportunity Under Manhattan Crypto Capital Quantitative Framework

“At Manhattan Crypto Capital, we focus on identifying infrastructure bottlenecks where future technological demand can create substantial asymmetric repricing opportunities. POET Technologies currently represents a compelling AI photonics and optical infrastructure opportunity due to its positioning within one of the most important layers of next-generation AI compute architecture.

The current structure reflects healthy consolidation following aggressive momentum expansion. From a statistical perspective, the chart continues demonstrating strong support stabilization, favorable momentum persistence, and constructive accumulation behavior while the broader AI infrastructure cycle remains intact. In our view, this materially improves long-term expected value provided AI networking and optical interconnect demand continues accelerating.

Under the Manhattan Crypto Capital framework, speculative AI infrastructure opportunities are accumulated strategically through staged entries, disciplined sizing, and active portfolio oversight. Our objective is not reacting emotionally to volatility. Our objective is identifying infrastructure platforms where future adoption curves and favorable quantitative structure align to create long-duration asymmetric opportunities while maintaining institutional capital preservation standards.

We believe optical infrastructure, photonics integration, and AI networking efficiency remain critical long-term themes that could become increasingly important as hyperscale AI compute demand continues expanding globally.”

Zaid Khan

CEO, Manhattan Crypto Capital

Managing Partner, Manhattan Global Partners

Manhattan Crypto Capital Disclaimer

This material is provided for informational, educational, and research purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any security, digital asset, derivative, fund interest, or investment product. Any offer or solicitation may be made only through official offering documents, including applicable Confidential Private Placement Memorandums, subscription agreements, and related legal documentation, and only to qualified and eligible investors in jurisdictions where permitted by law.

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The content presented reflects quantitative research, market commentary, technical analysis, macroeconomic interpretation, and portfolio construction methodologies that may change based on market conditions. Nothing herein should be construed as legal, tax, accounting, or personalized investment advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult qualified professional advisors before making investment decisions.

Manhattan Crypto Capital, Manhattan Global Partners, and their affiliates may hold positions in the assets, securities, or investment vehicles discussed and may change such positions without notice. No representation or warranty is made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein.

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