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MCC Quant Research #BND

  • 3 hours ago
  • 3 min read
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Issue: December 19, 2025

Asset: Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) — NASDAQ

Timeframe: Weekly

Vehicle Role: Defensive Anchor / Capital Preservation Sleeve

Fund Mandate: Long-only, cycle-based accumulation


1. Market Regime & Quant Score


Weighted Quant Components (Weekly):

  • MAs alignment: 88%

  • Price firmly above both 20W and 200W moving averages; slope positive and expanding.

  • DMI trend strength: 82%

  • Strong bullish trend with directional confirmation.

  • Ichimoku cloud positioning: 85%

  • Price above cloud; cloud rising and supportive.

  • Momentum (MACD / Stochastic): 78%

  • MACD bullish; stochastic elevated, signaling strength but near-term extension risk.

  • Structure & trend integrity: 80%

  • Clear higher-high / higher-low structure since the 2023 rate-cycle low.

  • Volume/distribution: 70%

  • Healthy participation; no evidence of distribution.

  • RSI offset: -5%

  • RSI is bullish but extended, reducing near-term asymmetry.


Market Regime: Bullish (Rate-Cycle Recovery / Defensive Expansion)

Quant Regime Score: 77 / 100


Interpretation: BND is in a confirmed bullish regime driven by declining rate pressure and duration repricing. Momentum remains constructive, though price is approaching a near-term extension where incremental risk increases.



2. MCC Portfolio Context


BND serves as the core defensive ballast within MCC’s multi-asset structure.

  • Role: Capital preservation, volatility dampening, and rotation destination from high-beta assets.

  • Volatility & drawdown: Low volatility; historical drawdowns ~15–20% in extreme rate shocks.

  • Exposure management:

    • Accumulated during rate-stress and deflationary fear phases.

    • Trimmed selectively into strength when yields compress, and risk assets outperform.

  • Portfolio complement: Offsets crypto, equity, and private credit betas; provides dry-powder stability.



3. BUY SCENARIO — Long-Only Accumulation


Buy Zone 1 (Primary): $70.61 – $71.61

  • Technical justification:

    • Prior breakout retest

    • Rising trendline support

    • Short-term mean reversion zone

  • MCC deployment style: Staged


Buy Zone 2 (Secondary): $68.69 – $69.00

  • Technical justification:

    • Prior consolidation shelf

    • 38.2%–50% retracement of impulse leg

  • MCC deployment style: Defensive


Buy Zone 3 (Deep / Stress): $65.85 – $62.90

  • Technical justification:

    • Long-term structural base

    • Historical rate-shock lows

  • MCC deployment style: Opportunistic



Example Capital Allocation ($1,000):

Zone

Allocation

Entry Range

Rationale

Primary

$500

$70.61–$71.61

Core defensive add

Secondary

$300

$68.69–$69.00

Pullback buffer

Deep

$200

$65.85–$62.90

Stress-cycle accumulation



4. SELL / RISK-OFF SCENARIO (NO SHORTS)


Sell / Trim Zone: $74.79 – $75.97

  • Purpose: Trim exposure / pause buying into extension

  • Redeploy: Cash, short-duration instruments, or tactical rotation sleeve


Upper MCC Price Reference: $77.68

  • Used for late-cycle rate compression, not a base-case forecast.

Statement: Sells are risk-management actions, not bearish bets.



5. Cycle-Based ROI Bands (MANDATORY)


Calculated from primary buy zone midpoint (~$71.10)

Cycle Regime

Target Range

Estimated ROI

Bear / Sideways

$68.69 – $72.00

-3% – 1%

Base Case

$74.79 – $75.97

5% – 7%

Bull Expansion

$77.68

~9%

(Income yield not included in ROI estimates.)



6. Risk Profile

  • Volatility: Low

  • Drawdown Risk: ~18%

  • Trend Strength: Strong (but extended)

  • Success Probability: ~72–80%

  • Total Risk Score: 38 / 100


Hard Invalidation Rules:

  • Weekly close below $68.69

  • Breakdown of rising trendline with renewed rate-pressure signals



7. MCC Quant Rules Applied

  • Trade only with a higher-timeframe trend

  • Use bonds as a defensive capital anchor

  • Buy pullbacks, not extensions

  • Trim duration into yield compression

  • Rotate profits into higher-beta assets opportunistically

  • Preserve liquidity during macro uncertainty



8. Strategic Interpretation (MCC risk management)

  • Now: Hold core position; avoid chasing at current levels.

  • If price moves higher: Trim into the $75–$77 zone and rotate into higher-beta sleeves.

  • If price moves lower: Accumulate methodically at defined buy zones if structure remains intact.


No forecasts. If–then execution only.



9. One-Liner

MCC Quant view on #BND: bullish defensive bond trend acting as a capital-preservation anchor, favoring disciplined long-only accumulation on pullbacks and selective trims into extension, supported by a Total Quant Score of 38/100 under MCC’s strategy and R&D investment framework.













⚠️ Legal Disclaimer

This content is quantitative research and technical analysis for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or solicitation to trade. Investing in digital assets and securities involves risk, including potential loss of capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.

 
 
 
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