top of page
MGC_logo_light_nobg.png
MGC_logo_light_nobg.png

MCC Quant Research #COIN

  • 2 hours ago
  • 3 min read

ree




Asset: Coinbase Global, Inc. (NASDAQ: COIN)

Timeframe: Weekly

Vehicle Role: Institutional Proxy / Crypto Infrastructure Equity

Fund Mandate: Long-only, cycle-based accumulation and rotation

Issue: December 19, 2025


1. Market Regime & Quant Score


Weighted Quant Components (Weekly):

  • MAs alignment: 78% (price retracing toward rising long-term structure)

  • DMI trend strength: 65% (trend weakening after rejection at resistance)

  • Ichimoku cloud positioning: 71% (price below cloud, no bullish re-entry yet)

  • Momentum (MACD / Stochastic): 69% (bearish momentum, oversold developing)

  • Structure & trend integrity: 74% (higher-lows intact, corrective leg in progress)

  • Volume/distribution: 70% (distribution confirmed near the sell zone)

  • RSI offset (neutral-to-oversold): -8%


Market Regime: Corrective within primary bull structure

Total Quant Regime Score: 74 / 100


Interpretation: COIN has completed a distribution phase at significant resistance and is now undergoing a controlled corrective reset into structural demand. Trend integrity remains intact, but price has not yet reached the optimal asymmetric entry point.



2. MCC Portfolio Context


COIN functions as a regulated institutional proxy for crypto adoption and exchange infrastructure, offering equity-based exposure to digital asset cycles without direct token risk.

  • Role in MCC: Infrastructure leverage to crypto adoption and ETF-driven volume growth

  • Risk profile: High beta relative to equities, lower volatility than pure crypto

  • When exposure is increased: Deep retracements into structural buy zones during crypto drawdowns

  • When exposure is reduced: Distribution into resistance during euphoric phases

  • Portfolio interaction: Complements BTC/ETH core and levered crypto ETFs while maintaining equity liquidity



3. BUY SCENARIO — Long-Only Accumulation


Buy Zone 1 (Primary): $198 – $165

  • Structural confluence with rising trendline and prior demand

  • MCC action: Staged accumulation only on stabilization


Buy Zone 2 (Secondary / Deep Reset): $145 – $135

  • Maximum asymmetry zone aligned with broader crypto risk-off events

  • MCC action: Opportunistic deployment using reserves



Example Allocation ($1,000 notional):

Zone

Allocation

Entry Range

MCC Rationale

Primary

$650

$198–165

Structural trend support

Secondary

$350

$145–135

Deep cycle reset



4. SELL / RISK-OFF SCENARIO (NO SHORTS)


Sell Zone 1: $351–365

  • Prior rejection and volume-based distribution zone

  • MCC action: Trim and rotate into reserves or lower-vol engines


Sell Zone 2: Above $440

  • Cycle extension / euphoric conditions

  • MCC action: De-risk aggressively, recycle capital



5. Cycle-Based ROI Bands

(From primary buy midpoint ≈ $181)

Cycle Phase

Target Range

Estimated ROI

Bear / Sideways

$145–260

-20% to +45%

Base Case

$351–365

+95% to +102%

Bull Expansion

$440+

+140%+



6. Risk Profile

  • Volatility: High

  • Drawdown Risk: ~45–55%

  • Trend Strength: Moderate

  • Success Probability: ~60–66%

  • Total Risk Score: 77 / 100


Hard invalidation: Weekly structural failure below ~$135.



7. MCC Quant Rules Applied

  • Trade with a cycle structure, not headlines

  • Treat COIN as infrastructure exposure, not momentum equity

  • Accumulate liquidity-driven fear, not breakouts

  • Trim into institutional distribution zones

  • Rotate gains into private credit, gold, or reserves

  • Preserve optionality via yield-bearing cash

  • Maintain long-only discipline with asymmetric patience


(Fully aligned with MCC’s Three-Engine Investment Framework) MCC– Strategic Investment Frame…



8. Strategic Interpretation (MCC Risk Mandate)

  • Current stance: Standby; price is mid-correction, not yet asymmetric

  • If price stabilizes in Buy Zone 1: Begin staged accumulation

  • If price accelerates lower: Deploy reserves defensively in Buy Zone 2

  • If price reclaims resistance: Trim and rotate; no chasing


No forecasts. If–then execution only.




9. One-Liner

MCC long-only view on #COIN: corrective regime within primary bull structure, with disciplined accumulation planned into defined demand zones and risk rotated per a 74/100 quant score.








⚠️ LEGAL DISCLAIMER: This content is quantitative research and technical analysis for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or solicitation to trade. Investing involves risk, including loss of capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.

 
 
 
bottom of page